Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-08-14 18:20 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 61.67%1.62momio equitativo
EV -0.707%
Ventaja -0.439%
Kelly -1.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.70%61.69%61.58%62.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.491.551.551.6167.11%64.68%64.52%62.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 38.33%2.61momio equitativo
EV -0.348%
Ventaja -0.134%
Kelly -0.218%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.04%38.31%38.42%39.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.492.502.6042.55%40.24%40.00%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 61.67%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 38.33%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.61. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.60, con un valor esperado de -0.348%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.92%EV -0.707%E -0.439%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.08%EV -3.80%E -1.51%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-14 00:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%EV -1.94%E -1.22%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.95%EV -0.348%E -0.134%K -0.218%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-13 23:29
FanDuel🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -2.56%E -1.62%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -6.48%E -2.66%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-13 22:24
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%EV -0.348%E -0.134%K -0.218%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-13 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%EV -1.11%E -0.432%K -0.706%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-13 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%EV -1.11%E -0.432%K -0.706%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-13 19:30
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -1.50%E -0.583%K -0.954%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-13 23:59
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -2.65%E -1.04%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-13 20:34
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.17%E -2.02%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-13 21:59
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -3.03%E -1.20%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 02:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -3.41%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-14 02:39
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 19:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 20:15
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-13 20:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.79%E -2.43%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.86%E -2.82%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 00:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-13 20:18
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:14
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:14
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 00:24
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 01:24
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -5.33%E -2.16%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 20:14
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 22:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 20:15
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 22:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 22:44
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:04
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -4.41%E -2.84%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -7.63%E -3.17%K -5.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-13 22:24
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.16%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.84%EV -3.03%E -1.20%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-13 21:44
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -3.41%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 01:09
Fliff🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 02:00
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.95%E -1.99%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:25
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.95%E -1.99%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:24
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.95%E -1.99%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 00:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 19:29
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 20:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -5.02%E -3.26%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.69%EV -6.48%E -2.66%K -4.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 20:14
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.26%E -0.888%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-13 22:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 22:44
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 22:45
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.18%E -1.67%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 00:24
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 19:27
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 19:28
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 20:14
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 20:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 20:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 20:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 00:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 00:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.64%E -3.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.10%E -2.49%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 02:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -6.87%E -4.55%K -13.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -8.01%E -3.34%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 00:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.49%E -4.99%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -2.26%E -0.888%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 02:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.49%E -4.99%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.93%E -4.23%K -7.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 19:29
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.11%E -5.44%K -16.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.01%E -3.34%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 00:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%0.4%2026-08-14 02:14
Novig1.60I 62.50%NM 62.17%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.83%0.5%2026-08-14 02:14
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-08-14 02:05
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-08-14 02:50
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 60.73%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%9.8%2026-08-13 21:14

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