A Escola das Odds

Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals

Início: 2026-07-05 01:06 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 0–3 St. Louis Cardinals

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Previsão 59.80%1.67odd justa
EV -1.33%
Vantagem -0.807%
Kelly -2.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
58.44%59.86%59.75%61.54%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.501.591.601.6566.67%62.73%62.50%60.61%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Previsão 40.20%2.49odd justa
EV +0.905%
Vantagem +0.360%
Kelly +0.599%
Crescimento +0.005%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.51

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
38.46%40.14%40.25%41.56%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.252.392.372.5144.44%41.92%42.19%39.84%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
GTbets1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV +0.905%E +0.360%K +0.599%G +0.005%2.3%2026-07-05 01:00
LowVig.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV +0.503%E +0.201%K +0.335%G +0.002%2.5%2026-07-05 01:00
BetOnline.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV +0.503%E +0.201%K +0.335%G +0.002%2.5%2026-07-05 01:00
Pinnacle1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%EV -0.301%E -0.121%K -0.204%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-05 00:55
BetAnything1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%EV -1.11%E -0.449%K -0.757%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-05 01:00
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -1.11%E -0.449%K -0.757%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 00:40
Everygame1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 01:00
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 01:00
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 01:00
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 01:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -1.51%E -0.615%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 01:04
Bovada1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV -2.31%E -0.951%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 00:45
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -2.71%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-05 00:30
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.53%E -1.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-04 23:15
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-05 00:20
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 23:40
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.92%E -3.09%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-05 00:40
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 01:00
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -10.30%E -6.87%K -20.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.52%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 01:05
Unibet (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.72%E -2.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.32%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 23:10
Unibet (NL)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.72%E -2.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.32%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-04 23:10
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.32%E -1.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 23:59
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -4.72%E -1.99%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 00:50
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -5.52%E -3.49%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -4.72%E -1.99%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 00:50
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.13%E -2.17%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 00:10
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -1.33%E -0.807%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-04 11:35
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.13%E -1.93%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-04 22:14
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.72%E -2.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-04 23:25
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 00:10
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:10
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:05
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:05
TABtouch1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
Bally Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-04 23:15
Dabble (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.53%E -2.35%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 00:05
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -1.93%E -1.18%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -6.33%E -2.72%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 00:50
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.72%E -2.31%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 00:09
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 00:10
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.12%E -3.90%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 01:05
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.71%E -4.30%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.54%E -3.28%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 23:10
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.32%E -2.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.55%E -4.24%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 01:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (9)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-04 23:30
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-04 22:20
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-05 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-05 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-05 01:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-05 01:05
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.4%2026-07-05 01:05
Matchbook1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%2.5%2026-07-05 01:04
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%7.2%2026-07-05 00:50