Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees

Início: 2026-08-01 23:16 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 5–2 New York Yankees

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

64 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Previsão 53.57%1.87odd justa
EV +5.00%
Vantagem +2.55%
Kelly +5.21%
Crescimento +0.260%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.96

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.87%53.03%53.65%54.23%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.701.791.781.9658.82%55.93%56.18%51.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Yankees (Visitante)

Previsão 46.43%2.15odd justa
EV -0.643%
Vantagem -0.300%
Kelly -0.564%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.77%46.97%46.35%52.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.802.042.052.1455.56%49.09%48.78%46.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chicago Cubs (Local): 53.57%; New York Yankees (Visitante): 46.43%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 1.87. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 1.96, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.00%.

Odds das casas de apostas (64 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV +5.00%E +2.55%K +5.21%G +0.260%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -16.43%E -9.13%K -20.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 23:15
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV +0.179%E +0.096%K +0.205%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 23:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV +0.179%E +0.096%K +0.205%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 23:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV +0.179%E +0.096%K +0.205%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 23:15
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +0.179%E +0.096%K +0.205%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -13.18%E -7.05%K -15.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 23:15
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -0.893%E -0.483%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -2.96%E -1.42%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 22:29
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 23:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 23:14
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 23:14
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -1.96%E -1.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.46%E -4.85%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:09
FanDuel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 54.04%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.96%EV -0.643%E -0.300%K -0.564%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-01 23:15
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%EV -1.57%E -0.741%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 23:05
BetAnything🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.50%E -1.37%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -3.43%E -1.65%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-01 23:14
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -3.04%E -1.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -1.11%E -0.520%K -0.980%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-01 23:05
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 23:15
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 23:15
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 23:15
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 22:34
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 22:23
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 23:15
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 23:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 23:14
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 22:10
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.57%E -1.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 16:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.11%E -2.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.89%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.11%E -2.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 22:00
NordicBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.11%E -2.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:14
Betsson🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.11%E -2.29%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-01 23:14
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-01 23:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -2.50%E -1.19%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-01 23:10
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -3.89%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-01 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 23:09
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 23:10
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 23:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.29%E -2.59%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 23:10
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.64%E -2.61%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 23:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.18%E -2.93%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 23:14
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -3.89%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 23:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 23:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.71%E -3.25%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 23:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -3.89%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-01 23:15
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -3.89%E -1.88%K -3.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-01 23:15
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:08
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 22:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 22:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 22:30
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:05
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 23:15
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.21%E -3.08%K -6.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 23:15
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -8.07%E -4.08%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-01 23:15
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.96%EV -6.25%E -3.57%K -8.33%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.04%EV -8.54%E -4.33%K -8.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 23:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.79%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 23:14
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.79%E -3.90%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 23:15
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.82%E -2.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 23:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.61%E -3.82%K -7.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 23:02
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.86%EV -7.32%E -4.23%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.14%EV -9.93%E -5.12%K -10.56%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-01 23:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.93%E -5.25%K -12.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.14%E -3.57%K -7.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 23:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-08-01 23:15
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-01 22:30
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-08-01 23:15
Polymarket◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-08-01 23:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-08-01 23:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-08-01 23:10
ProphetX◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.4%2026-08-01 23:15
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-08-01 23:15
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%1.8%2026-08-01 23:10
BetOpenly◎1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%7.0%2026-08-01 23:10