L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-19 18:21 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 10–1 Minnesota Twins

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 61.08%1.64cote équitable
EV +0.173%
Avantage +0.105%
Kelly +0.270%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.64

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.76%60.92%61.13%63.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.481.571.561.6467.57%63.87%64.10%60.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Minnesota Twins (Visiteur)

Prévision 38.92%2.57cote équitable
EV +0.411%
Avantage +0.159%
Kelly +0.260%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 2.58

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.72%39.08%38.87%41.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.232.412.402.5844.84%41.55%41.67%38.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%EV -3.49%E -2.21%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%EV +0.411%E +0.159%K +0.260%G +0.001%2.1%2026-07-19 18:19
Hard Rock Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -9.60%E -6.49%K -20.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -0.757%E -0.297%K -0.488%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 18:20
Bovada1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.94%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -1.15%E -0.451%K -0.744%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 18:19
BetOnline.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 61.41%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.59%EV -1.53%E -0.607%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-19 18:12
LowVig.ag1.59I 62.89%NM 61.41%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.59%EV -1.53%E -0.607%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-19 18:13
Everygame1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%EV -1.66%E -1.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-19 13:55
BetAnything1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-19 17:20
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-19 18:10
theScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-19 16:30
ReBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-19 18:19
Fanatics1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-19 18:19
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.70%E -1.08%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:19
MyBookie.ag1.57I 63.69%NM 61.14%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.86%EV -3.87%E -1.57%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-19 18:20
SportsBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -4.26%E -1.73%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 18:10
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -4.26%E -1.73%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-19 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-19 15:15
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-19 15:14
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 17:40
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 18:19
Coolbet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-19 18:19
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 18:19
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-19 18:05
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -5.94%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 18:20
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 18:19
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 18:19
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.65%E -1.90%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 18:19
1xBet1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV +0.173%E +0.105%K +0.270%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -5.43%E -2.23%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-19 04:50
GTbets1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.82%E -2.40%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-19 18:20
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-19 18:15
Unibet (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 15:15
Betway1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 18:20
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 18:08
betano_uk1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 18:08
Dabble (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.32%E -3.44%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 17:50
Unibet (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.94%E -3.85%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 18:19
Virgin Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-19 18:20
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.38%E -5.59%K -16.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.59%E -2.75%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 18:20
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 61.13%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.87%EV -6.98%E -2.92%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 18:20
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.37%E -3.10%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 22:30
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.55%E -4.28%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.37%E -3.10%K -5.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 15:55
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -3.49%E -2.21%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -7.76%E -3.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-19 18:10
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -8.15%E -3.45%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-19 18:20
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.82%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.18%EV -8.15%E -3.45%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-19 18:19
Bally Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.66%E -1.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -8.54%E -3.63%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 16:00
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.54%E -3.63%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 13:45
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.54%E -3.63%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 15:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.54%E -3.63%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 15:15
Caesars1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -2.88%E -1.81%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -8.54%E -3.63%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Unibet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -9.32%E -4.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -9.32%E -4.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Casumo1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -9.32%E -4.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -9.32%E -4.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
betPARX1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -9.32%E -4.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 18:20
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -9.71%E -4.18%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 18:20
ATG (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -9.71%E -4.18%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 18:20
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.10%E -2.61%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 18:20
PointsBet (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -10.49%E -4.56%K -8.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 18:20
Grosvenor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -2.27%E -1.42%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-19 18:20
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -3.49%E -2.21%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 18:20
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -11.26%E -4.94%K -8.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 18:20
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -7.16%E -4.71%K -13.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -12.43%E -5.53%K -9.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-19 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -4.71%E -3.02%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -13.21%E -5.92%K -10.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 18:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56%0.1%2026-07-19 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%0.6%2026-07-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%0.6%2026-07-19 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%0.6%2026-07-19 18:20
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%1.0%2026-07-19 18:20
Polymarket1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-19 08:30
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-19 18:20
ProphetX1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%1.2%2026-07-19 18:20
Novig1.57I 63.69%NM 61.99%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.01%2.8%2026-07-19 18:20
Matchbook1.42I 70.42%NM 62.83%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%12.1%2026-07-19 18:20