Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers

2026-09-03 23:15 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 49.03%2.04momio equitativo
EV +10.31%
Ventaja +4.58%
Kelly +8.25%
Crecimiento +0.851%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.86%48.57%48.95%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.841.941.942.2554.35%51.44%51.55%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante)

Predicción 50.97%1.96momio equitativo
EV -1.62%
Ventaja -0.841%
Kelly -1.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.43%51.05%58.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.861.871.9361.73%53.62%53.48%51.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 49.03%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante): 50.97%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.04. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +10.31%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +10.31%E +4.58%K +8.25%G +0.851%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -17.42%E -10.76%K -28.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 22:59
Caesars🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.45%E -0.724%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.15%E -1.66%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-02 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -1.95%E -0.973%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-02 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -1.95%E -0.973%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-02 17:35
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -1.95%E -0.973%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-02 18:05
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -2.44%E -1.22%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -1.62%E -0.841%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-02 19:05
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 17:35
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 18:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 18:45
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 18:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 18:45
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.40%E -2.25%K -4.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 18:45
Bet Right🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.89%E -2.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.17%E -2.22%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 17:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.89%E -2.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.89%E -2.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 17:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.89%E -2.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 18:45
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.89%E -2.52%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.68%E -2.50%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-02 18:45
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.38%E -2.79%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.62%E -0.841%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-02 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -5.87%E -3.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.19%E -2.79%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -5.87%E -3.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.19%E -2.79%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 19:35
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 20:14
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.64%E -1.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-02 23:04
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.36%E -3.33%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.70%E -3.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-02 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.85%E -3.60%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.15%E -1.66%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.85%E -3.60%K -7.61%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.15%E -1.66%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 18:55
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -8.32%E -4.45%K -9.56%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.72%E -3.67%K -8.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-02 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.18%EV -9.30%E -5.03%K -10.94%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -8.76%E -4.89%K -11.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.17%EV -9.79%E -5.32%K -11.65%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.83%EV -9.27%E -5.21%K -11.88%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 19:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-09-02 21:45
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-09-02 21:55
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%1.5%2026-09-02 22:30
ProphetX1.95I 51.28%NM 49.61%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.39%3.4%2026-09-02 22:55
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 49.18%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%9.9%2026-09-02 19:00
Arbitraje (32 combinaciones) +3.89%BoyleSports 2.25 (46.2%) / 1xBet 1.93 (53.8%)Ver las 32 combinaciones
Chicago Cubs (Local)Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante)Margen
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (46.2%)1xBet🎯 1.93 (53.8%)+3.89%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (46.2%)FanDuel🎯 1.93 (53.8%)+3.89%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.9%)BetOnline.ag🎯 1.91 (54.1%)+3.31%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.9%)LowVig.ag🎯 1.91 (54.1%)+3.31%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.9%)GTbets🎯 1.91 (54.1%)+3.31%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.9%)Bovada🎯 1.91 (54.1%)+3.31%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.9%)William Hill🎯 1.91 (54.1%)+3.31%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.8%)Caesars🎯 1.90 (54.2%)+3.01%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.8%)Paddy Power🎯 1.90 (54.2%)+3.01%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.8%)SportsBet🎯 1.90 (54.2%)+3.01%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.5%)Bet Right🎯 1.88 (54.5%)+2.42%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)DraftKings🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Fanatics🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)betfred_uk🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)PlayUp🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)BetMGM🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)theScore Bet🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Betr (AU)🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.4%)Neds🎯 1.87 (54.6%)+2.12%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.3%)Betclic (FR)🎯 1.86 (54.7%)+1.82%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.3%)Winamax (DE)🎯 1.86 (54.7%)+1.82%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)Coral🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)888sport🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)Bet Victor🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)888sport (SE)🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (45.1%)Mr Green (SE)🎯 1.85 (54.9%)+1.52%
BoyleSports🎯 2.25 (44.9%)ReBet🎯 1.83 (55.1%)+0.919%