Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds

2026-08-28 18:21 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 63.50%1.57momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -1.43%
Kelly -4.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.56%63.44%63.51%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.501.501.5469.44%66.52%66.67%64.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 36.50%2.74momio equitativo
EV +0.373%
Ventaja +0.136%
Kelly +0.213%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.90%36.56%36.49%38.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.612.602.7540.82%38.33%38.46%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 63.50%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 36.50%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.74. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.373%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 64.10%EV -2.21%E -1.43%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.90%EV +0.373%E +0.136%K +0.213%G +0.001%1.3%2026-08-27 22:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 36.08%EV -1.09%E -0.401%K -0.636%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.92%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 36.08%EV -1.09%E -0.401%K -0.636%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-27 19:50
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -1.45%E -0.538%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-27 19:59
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV -1.45%E -0.538%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-27 23:25
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.51%EV -2.21%E -1.43%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.49%EV -2.18%E -0.814%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-27 20:01
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.48%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.52%EV -2.91%E -1.09%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-28 00:25
theScore Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-27 20:05
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 22:00
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:21
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Fliff🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.38%E -3.61%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.28%E -1.24%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-27 20:05
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.64%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-27 19:50
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -3.64%E -1.38%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-27 21:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -3.48%E -2.29%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -4.01%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-27 21:00
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.01%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-27 21:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.37%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-27 21:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.37%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-27 21:00
Paddy Power🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -6.65%E -4.53%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV -4.37%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-27 19:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-27 19:55
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-27 20:00
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.48%E -2.29%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-27 21:00
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.11%E -2.72%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-27 20:01
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 19:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:01
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 20:53
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:00
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 21:45
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 23:25
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.02%E -4.07%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-27 23:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -6.02%E -4.07%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-27 23:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.65%E -4.53%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-27 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.64%EV -6.02%E -4.07%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.36%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-27 19:50
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-27 21:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-27 21:00
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.48%E -2.29%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 00:50
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 19:55
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 19:59
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 19:59
ReBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 01:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 19:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.75%E -3.17%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 20:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.38%E -3.61%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.93%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-27 20:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.65%E -4.53%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 00:25
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -8.56%E -5.94%K -19.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-27 23:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -2.84%E -1.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -10.58%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 01:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.65%E -4.53%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -10.58%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-27 21:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 65.00%2.86I 34.97%NM 35.00%-0.1%2026-08-28 00:20
Polymarket1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-08-27 19:50
Novig1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%2.4%2026-08-28 01:25
ProphetX1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54%6.3%2026-08-28 01:10
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 62.53%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.47%10.3%2026-08-27 21:01