L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-05 00:50 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 5–4 Cincinnati Reds

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

46 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 65.90%1.52cote équitable
EV -1.81%
Avantage -1.22%
Kelly -3.70%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.49

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
64.16%65.77%65.88%66.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.461.461.4971.43%68.60%68.49%67.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cincinnati Reds (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.10%2.93cote équitable
EV -0.765%
Avantage -0.263%
Kelly -0.401%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.18%34.23%34.12%35.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.772.792.9138.46%36.09%35.84%34.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -1.81%E -1.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-05 00:09
Grosvenor1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Unibet (NL)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Unibet (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Casumo1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Bally Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-05 00:09
Betsson1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.47%E -1.67%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.63%E -3.63%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 00:09
Pinnacle1.47I 68.03%NM 66.44%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.56%EV -0.765%E -0.263%K -0.401%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-05 00:40
BetOnline.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -1.11%E -0.381%K -0.582%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-05 00:09
LowVig.ag1.47I 68.03%NM 66.36%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.64%EV -1.11%E -0.381%K -0.582%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-05 00:09
GTbets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -2.13%E -0.742%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-05 00:09
BetUS1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV -2.47%E -0.864%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-05 00:09
FanDuel1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-05 00:10
Unibet (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-05 00:30
Virgin Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 00:09
LiveScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 00:09
BetRivers1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 00:09
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.13%E -2.13%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 00:09
Fanatics1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:09
Bet Right1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:09
Neds1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:09
BetMGM1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:09
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:10
SportsBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -5.20%E -1.87%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-05 00:09
888sport1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 00:09
888sport (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 00:09
Mr Green (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.45%E -3.07%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-05 00:09
theScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -1.11%E -0.381%K -0.582%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-05 00:09
Caesars1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.986%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-05 00:08
Bovada1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.81%E -0.986%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-05 00:08
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -3.15%E -1.11%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-05 00:39
Betr (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 00:09
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-05 00:09
Winamax (DE)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 00:39
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.11%E -3.55%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-05 00:08
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.76%E -4.03%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.81%E -0.986%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-05 00:39
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.42%E -4.52%K -15.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-05 00:09
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.08%E -5.02%K -17.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -11.34%E -4.36%K -7.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-05 00:39
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.74%E -5.53%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.52%E -1.61%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-05 00:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (8)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-05-05 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-05-05 00:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%0.8%2026-05-05 00:15
Polymarket1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-05-05 00:15
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.1%2026-05-05 00:20
Novig1.49I 67.11%NM 66.21%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.79%1.4%2026-05-05 00:35
ProphetX1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%1.6%2026-05-05 00:15
Matchbook1.39I 71.94%NM 64.45%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.55%11.6%2026-05-05 00:25