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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves

Inicio: 2026-09-14 23:41 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 7–3 Atlanta Braves

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 55.09%1.82momio equitativo
EV +0.261%
Ventaja +0.144%
Kelly +0.319%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.93%54.95%55.23%57.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.711.731.8262.11%58.38%57.80%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 44.91%2.23momio equitativo
EV +0.152%
Ventaja +0.068%
Kelly +0.124%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.26%45.05%44.77%48.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.882.112.122.2353.19%47.32%47.17%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Chicago Cubs (Local): 55.09%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 44.91%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.815. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.820, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.261%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV +0.261%E +0.144%K +0.319%G +0.001%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -11.08%E -5.59%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-14 23:40
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -0.841%E -0.467%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-14 23:05
GTbets🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -1.19%E -0.543%K -0.996%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-14 23:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-14 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-14 23:25
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-14 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -2.49%E -1.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -7.03%E -3.40%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 23:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.04%E -1.73%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.79%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-14 22:45
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%EV +0.152%E +0.068%K +0.124%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-14 23:15
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -0.297%E -0.134%K -0.243%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-14 23:20
BetAnything🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-14 23:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-14 23:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-14 23:40
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 23:41
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 23:40
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 23:30
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 23:29
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-14 00:15
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-14 22:45
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-13 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-14 10:05
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-14 23:15
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 23:40
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 23:40
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 23:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.93%EV -4.15%E -2.38%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.07%EV -15.57%E -8.28%K -17.69%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-14 23:40
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-14 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-14 23:15
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.79%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-14 22:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 20:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 20:20
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 21:15
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 23:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 23:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.70%E -2.71%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-14 05:45
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-14 23:15
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.80%E -3.39%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.93%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 23:40
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -1.19%E -0.543%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-14 23:15
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 23:15
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 23:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 23:15
FanDuel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.79%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 23:40
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.58%E -3.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 23:40
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.35%E -3.73%K -9.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 23:40
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 23:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.44%E -1.60%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-14 23:40
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -3.89%E -1.82%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 23:40
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.44%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.56%EV -6.14%E -2.94%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 23:40
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.44%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.56%EV -6.14%E -2.94%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 23:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.45%E -4.44%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.48%E -3.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-14 23:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.19%E -0.543%K -0.996%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-14 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -9.10%E -5.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -4.79%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -9.10%E -5.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -4.79%E -2.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.10%E -5.52%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 23:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV +0.152%E +0.068%K +0.124%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV +0.152%E +0.068%K +0.124%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 23:40
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 23:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -9.65%E -5.89%K -15.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-14 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -10.21%E -6.26%K -16.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 23:40
TABtouch🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -10.21%E -6.26%K -16.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -2.09%E -0.960%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.22%EV -10.76%E -6.64%K -17.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.78%EV -6.58%E -3.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 23:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -11.31%E -7.02%K -18.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -1.19%E -0.543%K -0.996%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 23:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.91%2.27I 44.05%NM 44.09%-0.1%2026-09-14 23:40
ProphetX◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%0.4%2026-09-14 23:40
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-09-14 23:35
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-09-14 23:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%0.7%2026-09-14 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%0.7%2026-09-14 23:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-09-14 23:40
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-09-14 14:05
BetOpenly◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%2.3%2026-09-14 23:20
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 55.96%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.04%12.4%2026-09-14 23:40