Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres

2026-08-06 01:41 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Prediction 49.16%2.03fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.59%49.21%49.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.931.922.0154.35%51.75%52.08%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Diego Padres (Visit)

Prediction 50.84%1.97fair odd
EV -0.860%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.906%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%50.79%50.81%51.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.891.901.9556.18%53.00%52.77%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 49.16%; San Diego Padres (Visit): 50.84%. For San Diego Padres (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.97. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.95, with an expected value of -0.860%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.19%E -0.592%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:04
BetOnline.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.19%E -0.592%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:05
LowVig.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.19%E -0.592%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:05
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.19%E -0.592%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:09
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -2.66%E -1.35%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -1.37%E -0.706%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-05 01:30
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.66%E -1.35%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -1.88%E -0.973%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 01:25
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -0.860%E -0.441%K -0.906%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 01:40
MyBookie.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -3.91%E -2.07%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:25
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 00:35
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:10
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:04
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.14%E -2.12%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:45
FanDuel1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -1.88%E -0.973%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 01:40
Unibet (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.12%E -2.65%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.42%E -2.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:19
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:35
PlayUp1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.42%E -2.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:14
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.42%E -2.35%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:23
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -5.61%E -2.92%K -6.10%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.44%E -2.92%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:20
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.89%E -1.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:24
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.89%E -1.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:05
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.89%E -1.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:04
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.89%E -1.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:04
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.89%E -1.52%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:20
Betr (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -3.91%E -2.07%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:35
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.93%E -2.64%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:44
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.44%E -2.92%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 01:20
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.94%E -3.21%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:04
betano_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.11%E -3.20%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.94%E -3.21%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:23
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.47%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:39
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.60%E -3.47%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.40%E -1.79%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:49
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.32%EV -8.56%E -4.60%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.68%EV -7.98%E -4.41%K -9.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-05 01:45
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.17%EV -9.55%E -5.19%K -11.37%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.83%EV -9.50%E -5.34%K -12.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-05 01:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00%0.0%2026-08-05 01:15
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-08-05 00:10
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%1.5%2026-08-05 01:45
BetOpenly1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-08-05 01:44
ProphetX1.96I 51.02%NM 49.35%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.65%3.4%2026-08-05 01:45
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-08-05 01:20