Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres

2026-08-06 01:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Predicción 49.24%2.03momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.507%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.59%49.28%49.34%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.831.931.922.0154.64%51.91%52.08%49.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Diego Padres (Visitante)

Predicción 50.76%1.97momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.527%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%50.72%50.66%51.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.891.891.9556.18%52.96%52.91%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 49.24%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 50.76%. Para Arizona Diamondbacks (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.03. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.01, con un valor esperado de -1.02%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.02%E -0.507%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:04
BetOnline.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.02%E -0.507%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:05
LowVig.ag2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.02%E -0.507%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:05
GTbets2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.02%E -0.507%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:09
BetUS2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -1.02%E -0.507%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 01:59
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -2.50%E -1.26%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -1.53%E -0.791%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-05 01:30
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -2.50%E -1.26%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -2.04%E -1.06%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 01:25
Hard Rock Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.03%E -0.527%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 01:40
MyBookie.ag1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -4.07%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:25
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 00:35
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:10
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:04
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:45
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-05 01:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.10%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:54
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.97%E -2.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.10%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.47%E -2.30%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:54
Neds1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.47%E -2.30%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:55
FanDuel1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.96%E -2.57%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.04%E -1.06%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-05 01:40
Unibet (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.96%E -2.57%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:19
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -4.96%E -2.57%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 01:55
Unibet (NL)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:55
BetRivers1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:55
Unibet (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:54
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.55%E -1.33%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-05 01:54
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:35
BetAnything1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:49
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.07%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-05 02:24
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:23
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:30
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:29
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -5.45%E -2.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -5.60%E -3.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:20
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:24
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:05
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:04
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:04
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:20
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:54
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:55
Bally Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:55
ATG (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:55
betPARX1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.06%E -1.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-05 01:54
Betr (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.07%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:35
ReBet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:44
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.09%E -2.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 02:39
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -5.60%E -3.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 01:20
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.10%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:04
betano_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.94%E -3.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.10%E -3.30%K -7.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:23
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.39%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 01:39
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.44%E -3.39%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.56%E -1.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:49
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.93%E -3.67%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.07%E -2.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 01:54
Virgin Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.42%E -3.95%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:55
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.42%E -3.95%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.58%E -2.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 01:54
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.32%EV -8.40%E -4.52%K -9.77%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.68%EV -8.13%E -4.49%K -10.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-05 01:45
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.17%EV -9.39%E -5.10%K -11.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.83%EV -9.66%E -5.42%K -12.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-05 01:20
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.88%E -5.40%K -11.91%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.12%E -3.89%K -8.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 01:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX2.05I 48.78%NM 48.62%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.38%0.3%2026-08-05 02:30
Novig2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%0.6%2026-08-05 02:20
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-08-05 00:10
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-08-05 02:00
BetOpenly1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.00%3.1%2026-08-05 02:15
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%5.8%2026-08-05 02:05
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-08-05 01:20