The School of Odds

Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Commanders

2026-09-13 20:25 — NFL

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Eagles (Local)

Prediction 65.59%1.52fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +3.02%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.96%65.45%65.56%67.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.291.451.451.55MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
60.96%1.640Min
67.51%1.481Max
65.45%1.528Mean
65.56%1.525Median
65.59%1.525IQM
65.51%1.526Margin-weighted

Washington Commanders (Visit)

Prediction 34.41%2.91fair odd
EV +1.52%
Edge +0.514%
Kelly +0.778%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%34.55%34.44%39.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.422.762.752.95MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
32.49%3.077Min
39.04%2.561Max
34.55%2.894Mean
34.44%2.904Median
34.41%2.906IQM
34.49%2.900Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

BookmakerPhiladelphia Eagles (Local) ▼Washington Commanders (Visit)MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52% NM 60.96%EV +1.66% E +1.07% K +3.02% G +0.050%2.42I 41.32% NM 39.04%EV -16.72% E -6.91% K -11.78% G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-19 19:40
Pinnacle1.49I 67.11% NM 65.11%EV -2.27% E -1.53% K -4.64% G +0.000%2.78I 35.97% NM 34.89%EV -4.33% E -1.56% K -2.43% G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-18 01:40
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57% NM 65.42%EV -2.93% E -1.98% K -6.11% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.58%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-21 13:59
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57% NM 65.42%EV -2.93% E -1.98% K -6.11% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.58%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-21 14:00
BetUS1.48I 67.57% NM 65.42%EV -2.93% E -1.98% K -6.11% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.58%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-22 17:20
MyBookie.ag1.48I 67.57% NM 63.81%EV -2.93% E -1.98% K -6.11% G +0.000%2.61I 38.31% NM 36.19%EV -10.18% E -3.90% K -6.32% G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-02 12:59
FanDuel1.47I 68.03% NM 65.57%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.43%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-14 23:39
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03% NM 65.57%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.43%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-15 22:30
Unibet (SE)1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
Unibet1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
ATG (SE)1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
Svenska Spel1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
betPARX1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
Bally Bet1.47I 68.03% NM 65.17%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.83%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-14 23:40
BetRivers1.47I 68.03% NM 64.75%EV -3.59% E -2.44% K -7.63% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 35.25%EV -7.09% E -2.62% K -4.17% G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-14 23:40
Neds1.46I 68.49% NM 65.32%EV -4.24% E -2.91% K -9.22% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.68%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-01 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.46I 68.49% NM 65.32%EV -4.24% E -2.91% K -9.22% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.68%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-01 20:50
BetMGM1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-01 20:49
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-15 22:29
GTbets1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-03 17:45
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97% NM 65.88%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 34.12%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-20 18:00
ReBet1.45I 68.97% NM 65.72%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.78I 35.97% NM 34.28%EV -4.33% E -1.56% K -2.43% G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-15 22:39
SportsBet1.45I 68.97% NM 65.64%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.77I 36.10% NM 34.36%EV -4.68% E -1.69% K -2.64% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 22:59
TAB1.45I 68.97% NM 65.48%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.52%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 05:40
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.90% E -3.38% K -10.89% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -7.09% E -2.62% K -4.17% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-12 05:40
Fanatics1.44I 69.44% NM 66.43%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.57%EV -1.92% E -0.675% K -1.04% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 14:25
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44% NM 66.43%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.57%EV -1.92% E -0.675% K -1.04% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-06 11:14
Caesars1.44I 69.44% NM 66.28%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.83I 35.34% NM 33.72%EV -2.61% E -0.923% K -1.43% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 11:18
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44% NM 66.04%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.96%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-01 20:49
Coral1.44I 69.44% NM 66.04%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.96%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-01 20:49
Bet Right1.44I 69.44% NM 66.04%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.96%EV -3.64% E -1.30% K -2.02% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 11:15
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-14 23:39
William Hill1.44I 69.44% NM 65.63%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.37%EV -5.37% E -1.95% K -3.07% G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-10 07:39
Coolbet1.44I 69.44% NM 65.55%EV -5.55% E -3.86% K -12.62% G +0.000%2.74I 36.50% NM 34.45%EV -5.71% E -2.08% K -3.28% G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 09:59
Bovada1.43I 69.93% NM 67.35%EV -6.21% E -4.34% K -14.44% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.65%EV +1.52% E +0.514% K +0.778% G +0.012%3.8%2026-07-06 11:12
DraftKings1.42I 70.42% NM 67.51%EV -6.87% E -4.84% K -16.35% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.49%EV +1.52% E +0.514% K +0.778% G +0.012%4.3%2026-07-06 11:15
Betclic (FR)1.42I 70.42% NM 65.53%EV -6.87% E -4.84% K -16.35% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 34.47%EV -7.09% E -2.62% K -4.17% G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-23 01:19
Betsson1.42I 70.42% NM 65.28%EV -6.87% E -4.84% K -16.35% G +0.000%2.67I 37.45% NM 34.72%EV -8.12% E -3.04% K -4.86% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 09:19
NordicBet1.42I 70.42% NM 65.28%EV -6.87% E -4.84% K -16.35% G +0.000%2.67I 37.45% NM 34.72%EV -8.12% E -3.04% K -4.86% G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 09:20
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42% NM 65.11%EV -6.87% E -4.84% K -16.35% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 34.89%EV -8.81% E -3.32% K -5.34% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-08 10:45
NetBet (FR)1.29I 77.52% NM 65.96%EV -15.39% E -11.93% K -53.08% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 34.04%EV -13.97% E -5.59% K -9.31% G +0.000%17.5%2026-07-06 11:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerPhiladelphia Eagles (Local)Washington Commanders (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.47I 68.03% NM 65.41%2.78I 35.97% NM 34.59%4.0%2026-07-02 20:50
Smarkets1.42I 70.42% NM 65.20%2.66I 37.59% NM 34.80%8.0%2026-06-15 22:30
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +1.61%Marathon Bet 1.55 (65.6%) / DraftKings 2.95 (34.4%)Show all 5 combinations
Philadelphia Eagles (Local)Washington Commanders (Visit)Margin
Marathon Bet 1.55 (65.6%)Bovada 2.95 (34.4%)+1.61%
Marathon Bet 1.55 (65.6%)DraftKings 2.95 (34.4%)+1.61%
Marathon Bet 1.55 (64.8%)Fanatics 2.85 (35.2%)+0.398%
Marathon Bet 1.55 (64.8%)PointsBet (AU) 2.85 (35.2%)+0.398%
Marathon Bet 1.55 (64.6%)Caesars 2.83 (35.4%)+0.148%