The School of Odds

Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

2026-10-04 13:30 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Washington Commanders (Local)

Prediction 51.77%1.93fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%51.75%51.76%52.22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.841.8756%54%54%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.78%48.25%48.24%48.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.911.961.972.0052%51%51%50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -3.18%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 22:59
Caesars1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -3.18%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -5.48%E -2.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-22 16:56
FanDuel1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 23:00
DraftKings1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 01:09
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.74%E -2.57%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-21 01:10
ReBet1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -4.74%E -2.57%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 01:10
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.26%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 01:10
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.26%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 22:59
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-21 01:08
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 01:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%8.2%2026-07-21 01:10