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Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

2026-10-04 13:30 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Commanders (Local)

Prediction 49.80%2.01fair odd
EV +0.599%
Edge +0.297%
Kelly +0.587%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.74%49.80%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.931.912.0254.05%51.94%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 50.20%1.99fair odd
EV -0.607%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.619%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%50.26%50.20%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.881.891.9855.56%53.27%52.91%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Commanders (Local): 49.80%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 50.20%. For Washington Commanders (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.02, producing a positive expected value of +0.599%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV +0.599%E +0.297%K +0.587%G +0.004%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-09 00:20
SportsBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV +0.101%E +0.050%K +0.100%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -8.14%E -4.45%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-09 00:20
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.397%E -0.198%K -0.397%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.64%E -5.36%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 00:20
Caesars🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -4.12%E -2.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 00:24
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.12%E -2.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-11 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.62%E -2.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 19:54
ReBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.62%E -2.43%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 19:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.12%E -2.71%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-10 18:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.37%E -3.39%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -7.13%E -3.86%K -8.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-11 19:54
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -0.607%E -0.307%K -0.619%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 01:09
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.13%E -3.86%K -8.39%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-11 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%8.1%2026-08-11 19:55

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