The School of Odds
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Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

2026-10-04 13:30 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Commanders (Local)

Prediction 49.83%2.01fair odd
EV -0.332%
Edge -0.166%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.32%49.91%49.87%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.911.912.0054.05%52.29%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 50.17%1.99fair odd
EV -0.672%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.685%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%50.09%50.13%51.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.891.901.9854.64%52.93%52.77%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Commanders (Local): 49.83%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 50.17%. For Washington Commanders (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.00, with an expected value of -0.332%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -0.332%E -0.166%K -0.332%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-01 20:30
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -1.33%E -0.671%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -6.69%E -3.60%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 20:30
Caesars🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.82%E -1.98%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -3.68%E -1.92%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 20:30
ReBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.32%E -2.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -5.19%E -2.74%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 20:40
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.18%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 20:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.18%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-28 22:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.68%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 20:40
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.82%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 20:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.32%E -2.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.68%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 20:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.31%E -3.36%K -7.17%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 20:39
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.81%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -0.672%E -0.339%K -0.685%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 01:09
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.81%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-01 20:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.86I 53.76%NM 49.73%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.27%8.1%2026-09-03 20:40
Polymarket◎1.35I 74.07%NM 51.79%1.45I 68.97%NM 48.21%43.0%2026-09-03 19:49