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Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

2026-10-04 13:30 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Commanders (Local)

Prediction 34.27%2.92fair odd
EV -0.625%
Edge -0.216%
Kelly -0.329%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.27%34.29%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.762.792.9041.15%36.24%35.84%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 65.73%1.52fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.04%65.73%65.71%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.441.441.4975.19%69.44%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Commanders (Local): 34.27%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 65.73%. For Washington Commanders (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.90, with an expected value of -0.625%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.625%E -0.216%K -0.329%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.00%E -4.20%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-22 19:40
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.625%E -0.216%K -0.329%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-22 19:39
Caesars🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -3.37%E -1.19%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -4.03%E -2.76%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-22 22:02
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-22 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-23 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:04
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:05
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:03
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-22 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%EV -4.74%E -1.70%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%EV -6.00%E -4.20%K -13.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-22 23:22
ReBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -5.08%E -1.83%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 22:39
GTbets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.72%E -1.83%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-22 21:35
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 19:55
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-22 22:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-23 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.77%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.34%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-22 19:39
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.06%E -1.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-23 20:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 22:38
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -9.19%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-23 19:55
Dabble (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.91%E -4.19%K -6.82%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.03%E -2.76%K -8.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-23 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 35.37%EV -16.73%E -6.89%K -11.70%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 64.63%EV -12.58%E -9.46%K -38.11%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-22 23:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%0.1%2026-09-23 20:39
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%1.1%2026-09-23 23:30
Novig◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.25%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.75%2.1%2026-09-23 23:40
Polymarket◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%4.0%2026-09-24 00:06
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 34.98%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.02%8.3%2026-09-22 22:40