Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

Inicio: 2026-10-04 13:32 UTC

Final: Washington Commanders 13–30 Indianapolis Colts

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Washington Commanders (Local)

Predicción 33.15%3.02momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.403%
Kelly -0.606%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.27%33.34%33.03%35.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.482.842.862.9840.32%35.24%34.97%33.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visitante)

Predicción 66.85%1.50momio equitativo
EV -0.400%
Ventaja -0.268%
Kelly -0.816%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.49

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.79%66.66%66.97%67.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.431.431.4975.19%69.80%69.93%67.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Washington Commanders (Local): 33.15%; Indianapolis Colts (Visitante): 66.85%. Para Indianapolis Colts (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.50. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.49, con un valor esperado de -0.400%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.88%EV -1.20%E -0.403%K -0.606%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.12%EV -2.41%E -1.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-04 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -1.20%E -0.403%K -0.606%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -5.08%E -3.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-04 13:30
Pinnacle🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -2.53%E -0.859%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -3.07%E -2.12%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-04 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -2.53%E -0.859%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 13:30
ReBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 33.41%EV -3.52%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.59%EV -2.41%E -1.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-04 12:50
Betsson🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -3.52%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -5.75%E -4.08%K -14.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 13:20
NordicBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -3.52%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -5.75%E -4.08%K -14.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 13:30
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 13:30
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 13:25
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 12:45
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 12:45
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 13:01
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 13:28
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 12:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 09:10
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 13:01
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-04 13:08
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.08%E -3.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 13:01
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.08%E -3.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 12:45
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:45
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.85%E -1.33%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 12:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.18%E -1.45%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-04 12:44
FanDuel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 13:25
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 12:15
Caesars🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 12:05
SportsBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -5.18%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-04 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -5.18%E -1.81%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -5.75%E -4.08%K -14.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 13:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 12:50
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 12:50
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 13:10
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.51%E -1.93%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-04 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -0.400%E -0.268%K -0.816%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -0.400%E -0.268%K -0.816%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -0.400%E -0.268%K -0.816%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -0.400%E -0.268%K -0.816%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-03 11:20
Dabble (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.07%E -2.12%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 13:15
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 11:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 11:00
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 13:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 12:45
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.08%E -3.58%K -12.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-04 13:25
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.17%E -2.56%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -1.07%E -0.722%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-04 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -1.07%E -0.722%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 11:20
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -1.74%E -1.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 11:19
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -1.74%E -1.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 11:19
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -1.74%E -1.18%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-03 11:20
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.41%E -3.08%K -10.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 13:30
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 13:30
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -9.09%E -6.68%K -25.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 13:30
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.07%E -2.12%K -6.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -10.48%E -3.88%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -8.42%E -6.15%K -22.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 12:43
Fliff🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -3.74%E -2.60%K -8.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-04 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -12.14%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -6.42%E -4.58%K -16.04%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-04 13:27
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.91%EV -17.78%E -7.17%K -12.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.09%EV -11.10%E -8.34%K -33.62%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-03 11:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%0.2%2026-10-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%0.2%2026-10-04 13:25
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-10-04 13:30
ProphetX◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-10-04 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-10-04 13:20
Novig◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%0.7%2026-10-04 11:30
Polymarket◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%1.1%2026-10-04 11:30
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%1.1%2026-10-04 13:01
Smarkets◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.52%1.6%2026-10-04 13:25
BetOpenly◎2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%3.8%2026-10-04 13:29