Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Cleveland Browns

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)

Prediction 70.40%1.42fair odd

EV -0.741%

Edge -0.526%

Kelly -1.81%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.03%70.40%70.40%72.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.361.351.4176.34%73.71%74.07%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Browns (Visit)

Prediction 29.60%3.38fair odd

EV +3.61%

Edge +1.03%

Kelly +1.45%

Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.23%29.60%29.60%31.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.77%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local): 70.40%; Cleveland Browns (Visit): 29.60%. For Cleveland Browns (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.50, producing a positive expected value of +3.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -7.78%E -5.94%K -25.10%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +3.61%E +1.03%K +1.45%G +0.052%	4.9%	2026-06-01 20:19
Betr (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.97%E -3.68%K -14.19%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.79%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-13 16:29
DraftKings🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -0.741%E -0.526%K -1.81%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -11.19%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-13 16:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%	1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%	83.5%	2026-08-14 05:15

Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.51%DraftKings 1.41 (71.3%) / Caesars 3.50 (28.7%)Show details

DraftKings🎯 Caesars🎯

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)	Cleveland Browns (Visit)	Margin
DraftKings🎯 1.41 (71.3%)	Caesars🎯 3.50 (28.7%)	+0.509%

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