Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Cleveland Browns

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)

Prediction 71.87%1.39fair odd

EV -2.98%

Edge -2.21%

Kelly -8.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.97%71.87%71.87%72.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.331.331.3576.34%75.19%75.19%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Browns (Visit)

Prediction 28.13%3.55fair odd

EV -1.53%

Edge -0.438%

Kelly -0.613%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.23%28.13%28.13%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.383.353.5030.30%29.56%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local): 71.87%; Cleveland Browns (Visit): 28.13%. For Cleveland Browns (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -1.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -2.98%E -2.21%K -8.52%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -7.16%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-02 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.42%E -3.32%K -13.39%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.75%E -1.72%K -2.45%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 23:09
Caesars🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.86%E -4.47%K -18.89%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.53%E -0.438%K -0.613%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-01 20:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%	0.9%	2026-09-04 00:25
Polymarket◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85%	3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%	3.0%	2026-09-03 11:35