The School of Odds
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New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders

2026-10-11 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 77.20%1.30fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -14.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.64%77.20%77.20%77.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.231.2583.33%81.30%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 22.80%4.39fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -0.590%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%22.80%22.80%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.994.164.104.3025.06%24.05%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 77.20%; Las Vegas Raiders (Visit): 22.80%. For Las Vegas Raiders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -1.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.50%E -2.80%K -14.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -6.51%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.28%E -3.45%K -17.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.51%E -1.59%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 20:49
Caesars🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.05%E -4.10%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.95%E -0.452%K -0.590%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-15 21:54
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.05%E -4.10%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -1.95%E -0.452%K -0.590%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 02:11
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.88%EV -7.36%E -6.14%K -36.82%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.12%EV -9.01%E -2.26%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-28 18:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.05I 95.24%NM 71.47%2.63I 38.02%NM 28.53%33.3%2026-09-09 17:20