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New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders

2026-10-11 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 77.48%1.29fair odd
EV -3.92%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -16.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.21%77.48%77.48%77.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.231.231.2481.30%81.08%81.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Las Vegas Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.738%
Kelly -0.961%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.24%22.52%22.52%22.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.234.204.3023.81%23.62%23.81%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 77.48%; Las Vegas Raiders (Visit): 22.52%. For Las Vegas Raiders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.30, with an expected value of -3.17%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -3.92%E -3.16%K -16.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-12 19:29
Caesars🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.70%E -3.82%K -20.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.17%E -0.738%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-15 21:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.70%E -3.82%K -20.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.42%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 19:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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