The School of Odds

New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders

2026-10-11 17:00 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: New England Patriots (Local)

1.2381.30%Min
1.2380.97%Mean
1.2380.97%Median
1.2480.65%Max
77.21%1.295Min
77.76%1.286Max
77.48%1.291Mean
77.48%1.291Median
77.48%1.291IQM
77.48%1.291Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.24 under the IQM model: 77.48%

EV -3.92%Edge -3.16%Kelly -16.34%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Las Vegas Raiders (Visit)

4.2023.81%Min
4.2523.53%Mean
4.2523.53%Median
4.3023.26%Max
22.24%4.496Min
22.79%4.387Max
22.52%4.441Mean
22.52%4.441Median
22.52%4.441IQM
22.52%4.440Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.30 under the IQM model: 22.52%

EV -3.17%Edge -0.738%Kelly -0.961%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerNew England Patriots (Local) ▼Las Vegas Raiders (Visit)MarginUpdated
DraftKings1.24I 80.65% NM 77.21%EV -3.92% E -3.16% K -16.34% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.79%EV -5.42% E -1.29% K -1.69% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-22 20:10
Caesars1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.70% E -3.82% K -20.42% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -3.17% E -0.738% K -0.961% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-15 21:54
Bet Right1.23I 81.30% NM 77.76%EV -4.70% E -3.82% K -20.42% G +0.000%4.30I 23.26% NM 22.24%EV -3.17% E -0.738% K -0.961% G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 02:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth