Language:English
Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Houston Texans (Local)
Prediction 48.58%2.06fair odd
EV -0.415%
Edge -0.203%
Kelly -0.395%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.34%48.58%48.56%51.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.972.0555.56%50.99%50.76%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Bills (Visit)
Prediction 51.42%1.94fair odd
EV +0.273%
Edge +0.140%
Kelly +0.287%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%51.42%51.44%53.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.841.851.9560.61%54.22%54.05%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Texans (Local): 48.58%; Buffalo Bills (Visit): 51.42%. For Buffalo Bills (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.273%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -10.13%E -5.48%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +0.273%E +0.140%K +0.287%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -10.13%E -5.48%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +0.273%E +0.140%K +0.287%G +0.001% | 5.3% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%EV -3.33%E -1.67%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%EV -0.756%E -0.391%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%EV -3.82%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%EV -0.756%E -0.391%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-13 16:31 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.22%E -3.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.78%E -0.934%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.22%E -3.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.78%E -0.934%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.70%E -4.05%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.30%E -1.21%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-13 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -6.24%E -3.24%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-13 03:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.19%E -4.33%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.81%E -1.49%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 16:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -4.30%E -2.18%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 16:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 16:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 16:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 15:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.22%E -3.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.84%E -2.05%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.82%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -4.36%E -2.34%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.36%E -2.34%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.76%E -2.97%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.36%E -2.34%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.87%E -0.927%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.87%E -0.927%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.87%E -0.927%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.87%E -0.927%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-13 06:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -1.87%E -0.927%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-13 02:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.82%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.82%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -3.82%E -1.93%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.79%E -2.44%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -5.76%E -2.97%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-13 16:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.24%E -3.24%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.87%E -2.63%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.76%E -2.97%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.38%E -2.93%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 08:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 14:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-13 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 16:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.27%E -2.70%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.90%E -3.22%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.415%E -0.203%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-13 12:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 19:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-13 16:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 19:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 19:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.84%E -1.42%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-08 19:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.30%E -2.18%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.22%E -3.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.22%E -3.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.44%E -4.13%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -7.70%E -4.05%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.47%E -4.76%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -0.415%E -0.203%K -0.395%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -8.98%E -5.08%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-13 16:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%EV -11.59%E -6.37%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.98%EV -10.01%E -5.72%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.83%EV -12.56%E -6.98%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 52.17%EV -15.15%E -9.18%K -23.31%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-09-13 06:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25% | 0.5% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 0.5% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 0.8% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 0.8% | 2026-09-13 17:01 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 16:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-13 16:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38% | 1.8% | 2026-09-13 17:00 |