The School of Odds

Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars

2026-09-20 20:05 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Denver Broncos (Local)

1.5664.10%Min
1.6261.73%Mean
1.6261.73%Median
1.6859.52%Max
57.14%1.750Min
61.58%1.624Max
59.36%1.685Mean
59.36%1.685Median
59.36%1.685IQM
59.37%1.684Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.68 under the IQM model: 59.36%

EV -0.276%Edge -0.164%Kelly -0.406%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)

2.2444.64%Min
2.3742.19%Mean
2.3742.19%Median
2.5040.00%Max
38.42%2.603Min
42.86%2.333Max
40.64%2.461Mean
40.64%2.461Median
40.64%2.461IQM
40.63%2.461Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.50 under the IQM model: 40.64%

EV +1.60%Edge +0.640%Kelly +1.07%Growth +0.017%

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerDenver Broncos (Local)Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars1.56I 64.10% NM 61.58%EV -7.40% E -4.74% K -13.21% G +0.000%2.50I 40.00% NM 38.42%EV +1.60% E +0.640% K +1.07% G +0.017%4.1%2026-05-15 02:38
Bet Right1.61I 62.11% NM 59.24%EV -4.43% E -2.75% K -7.26% G +0.000%2.34I 42.74% NM 40.76%EV -4.90% E -2.09% K -3.66% G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-26 02:11
DraftKings1.68I 59.52% NM 57.14%EV -0.276% E -0.164% K -0.406% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 42.86%EV -8.97% E -4.00% K -7.23% G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-21 06:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Arbitrage (1 combination)+0.48%DraftKings 1.68 (59.8%) / Caesars 2.50 (40.2%)Show details
Denver Broncos (Local)Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.68 (59.8%)Caesars 2.50 (40.2%)+0.478%