The School of Odds

Denver Broncos v Jacksonville Jaguars

2026-09-20 20:05 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Denver Broncos (Local)

Prediction 58.99%1.70fair odd
EV +0.289%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.412%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%58.99%58.99%61.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.621.7064%61%62%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 41.01%2.44fair odd
EV +2.52%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%41.01%41.01%43.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.302.5045%43%43%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.97%E -5.11%K -14.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +2.52%E +1.01%K +1.68%G +0.042%4.1%2026-05-15 02:38
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.43%E -2.74%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.68%E -2.47%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 20:24
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV +0.289%E +0.170%K +0.412%G +0.001%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -9.79%E -4.45%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (1 combination) +1.19%DraftKings 1.70 (59.5%) / Caesars 2.50 (40.5%)Show details
Denver Broncos (Local)Jacksonville Jaguars (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.70 (59.5%)Caesars 2.50 (40.5%)+1.19%