L’École des cotes

Sorana Cirstea v Sara Bejlek

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-30 16:53 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sorana Cirstea (Local)

Prévision 74.10%1.35cote équitable
EV +0.781%
Avantage +0.575%
Kelly +2.17%
Croissance +0.017%

avec la cote maximale 1.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
70.50%74.04%74.04%77.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.201.271.271.3683.33%78.81%78.74%73.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Sara Bejlek (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.90%3.86cote équitable
EV +8.76%
Avantage +2.09%
Kelly +2.74%
Croissance +0.240%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
22.22%25.96%25.96%29.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.653.654.2030.77%27.40%27.40%23.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Ladbrokes (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -11.08%E -9.23%K -55.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +8.76%E +2.09%K +2.74%G +0.240%7.1%2026-06-30 16:50
Pinnacle1.27I 78.74%NM 75.95%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.05%EV +3.84%E +0.958%K +1.28%G +0.049%3.7%2026-06-30 16:10
BetUS1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%5.0%2026-06-30 16:47
Hard Rock Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%5.0%2026-06-30 16:50
888sport1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +3.58%E +0.896%K +1.19%G +0.043%7.0%2026-06-30 16:50
Coral1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV +0.994%E +0.255%K +0.343%G +0.003%7.6%2026-06-30 16:49
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%EV -6.63%E -5.26%K -25.50%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%EV +0.735%E +0.189%K +0.254%G +0.002%5.1%2026-06-30 16:49
Grosvenor1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -0.300%E -0.078%K -0.105%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 16:50
TABtouch1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -0.300%E -0.078%K -0.105%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-30 16:50
Unibet (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.60%E -0.420%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 16:49
Caesars1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -1.60%E -0.420%K -0.570%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 16:08
BetMGM1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -1.60%E -0.420%K -0.570%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-30 16:49
Casumo1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-30 16:49
PointsBet (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:49
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:09
theScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:50
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:50
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:50
LeoVegas1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -2.89%E -0.771%K -1.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-30 16:50
BetOnline.ag1.31I 76.34%NM 73.85%EV -2.92%E -2.23%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-30 16:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 16:09
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 16:10
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-30 16:10
Unibet (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Unibet (NL)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Unibet1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Svenska Spel1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
ATG (SE)1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
betPARX1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.18%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 16:50
ReBet1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -2.92%E -2.23%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-30 16:10
Fanatics1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.41%E -3.42%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 16:49
Marathon Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 16:29
Bally Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -5.48%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-30 16:49
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 74.49%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.51%EV -6.26%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-30 16:50
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 74.49%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.51%EV -6.26%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-30 16:50
William Hill1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.41%E -3.42%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 16:30
Betr (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 16:45
PMU (FR)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 16:50
LiveScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Tipico (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Virgin Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-30 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.85%E -7.20%K -38.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -6.77%E -1.88%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-30 16:49
BetRivers1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -8.07%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 16:10
MyBookie.ag1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -8.07%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 16:48
Fliff1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.07%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-30 16:49
Bovada1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.18%E -1.65%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 16:08
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -2.92%E -2.23%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-30 16:49
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 16:50
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 16:29
Coolbet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 16:49
Dabble (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-30 16:29
betfred_uk1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.41%E -3.42%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 16:40
TAB1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.15%E -4.02%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 16:49
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.37%E -5.90%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-30 16:50
Winamax (DE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -8.11%E -6.54%K -33.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -9.36%E -2.68%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-30 16:50
BetAnything1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -2.92%E -2.23%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 16:30
Unibet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -10.66%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-30 16:09
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.66%E -2.82%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 16:49
Winamax (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 73.59%EV -9.59%E -7.86%K -43.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.95%E -3.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-30 16:50
1xBet1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -1.44%E -1.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -12.21%E -3.60%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-30 16:40
Betclic (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.33%EV -5.89%E -4.64%K -21.81%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.67%EV -14.03%E -4.22%K -6.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-30 16:48
Betway1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV +0.781%E +0.575%K +2.17%G +0.017%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -15.84%E -4.87%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 16:49
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -4.41%E -3.42%K -15.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -15.84%E -4.87%K -7.04%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-30 16:48
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%0.2%2026-06-30 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-06-30 16:50
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-06-30 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-06-30 16:50
ProphetX1.25I 80.00%NM 78.81%4.65I 21.51%NM 21.19%1.5%2026-06-30 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%2.8%2026-06-30 16:50
Novig1.25I 80.00%NM 77.31%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.69%3.5%2026-06-30 16:50