L’École des cotes

Jelena Ostapenko v Antonia Ruzic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-01 10:14 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jelena Ostapenko (Local)

Prévision 75.77%1.32cote équitable
EV -1.50%
Avantage -1.15%
Kelly -4.99%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
74.23%75.84%75.82%78.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.221.251.251.3081.97%79.87%80.00%76.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Antonia Ruzic (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.23%4.13cote équitable
EV +5.15%
Avantage +1.19%
Kelly +1.54%
Croissance +0.080%

avec la cote maximale 4.34

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.98%24.16%24.18%25.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.603.933.904.3427.78%25.47%25.64%23.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet1.23I 81.30%NM 77.92%EV -6.80%E -5.53%K -29.57%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.08%EV +5.15%E +1.19%K +1.54%G +0.080%4.3%2026-07-01 09:59
Sky Bet1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +4.91%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.072%5.1%2026-07-01 10:00
Pinnacle1.26I 79.37%NM 77.42%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.58%EV +4.67%E +1.08%K +1.41%G +0.066%2.5%2026-07-01 09:40
SportsBet1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +4.18%E +0.973%K +1.27%G +0.053%5.2%2026-07-01 10:00
FanDuel1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -6.04%E -4.87%K -25.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV +1.76%E +0.419%K +0.550%G +0.010%4.5%2026-07-01 10:00
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +1.76%E +0.419%K +0.550%G +0.010%5.8%2026-07-01 10:00
BetAnything1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.662%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-01 09:00
ReBet1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -0.662%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-01 09:59
Betclic (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -0.662%E -0.161%K -0.213%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-01 09:59
Betr (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -6.80%E -5.53%K -29.57%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -1.87%E -0.462%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-01 10:00
Unibet (UK)1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.77%E -2.97%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-01 03:09
Winamax (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.77%E -2.97%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-01 10:00
Hard Rock Bet1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -3.77%E -2.97%K -13.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-01 09:09
BetOnline.ag1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-01 08:39
888sport1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 08:59
Betway1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 08:39
Mr Green (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:00
888sport (SE)1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 08:59
BoyleSports1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 08:59
Bovada1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:00
William Hill1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:39
PointsBet (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.80%E -5.53%K -29.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 09:19
betfred_uk1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-01 09:10
NetBet (FR)1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.56%E -6.20%K -34.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.08%E -0.771%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-01 10:00
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -6.04%E -4.87%K -25.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.30%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-01 10:00
GTbets1.30I 76.92%NM 75.10%EV -1.50%E -1.15%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.90%EV -5.02%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-30 01:09
Marathon Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -5.02%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-01 09:30
Unibet1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
BetRivers1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
Unibet (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
Unibet (NL)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:09
Casumo1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
Grosvenor1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
LeoVegas1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:09
TABtouch1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
Bally Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:20
betPARX1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
ATG (SE)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:09
Svenska Spel1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:10
Fanatics1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -5.51%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-01 09:50
theScore Bet1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 22:09
Winamax (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-01 10:00
Dabble (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-01 08:40
MyBookie.ag1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-01 09:09
PlayUp1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.72%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-01 08:39
DraftKings1.26I 79.37%NM 75.29%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.71%EV -6.96%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 18:48
BetUS1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -4.53%E -3.59%K -17.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-01 08:40
Tipico (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 19:01
TAB1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 08:39
Virgin Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 08:20
LiveScore Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-30 08:19
Caesars1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 22:59
Betsson1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 10:00
NordicBet1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.93%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-01 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.14%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-01 00:49
Everygame1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.14%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-01 08:59
PMU (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.04%E -4.87%K -25.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -9.14%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-30 08:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.01%E -2.35%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 08:59
Neds1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -3.01%E -2.35%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 09:00
BetMGM1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.77%E -2.97%K -13.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-01 09:00
Coral1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-01 09:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-01 09:00
Bet Victor1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.29%E -4.23%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.78%E -3.55%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 23:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-07-01 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-07-01 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-07-01 10:00
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-07-01 10:00
ProphetX1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%0.7%2026-07-01 09:50
Novig1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76%4.44I 22.52%NM 22.24%1.3%2026-07-01 10:00
Smarkets1.24I 80.65%NM 78.77%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.23%2.4%2026-07-01 09:40