L’École des cotes

Jasmine Paolini v Alexandra Eala

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-06 12:41 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

66 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jasmine Paolini (Local)

Prévision 42.63%2.35cote équitable
EV +3.59%
Avantage +1.48%
Kelly +2.51%
Croissance +0.090%

avec la cote maximale 2.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.10%42.79%42.31%47.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.252.252.4350.00%44.54%44.44%41.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alexandra Eala (Visiteur)

Prévision 57.37%1.74cote équitable
EV +3.84%
Avantage +2.12%
Kelly +4.74%
Croissance +0.182%

avec la cote maximale 1.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.62%57.21%57.69%60.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.531.631.621.8165.36%61.48%61.73%55.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (66 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
DraftKings2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -14.31%E -7.12%K -14.17%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV +3.84%E +2.12%K +4.74%G +0.182%5.0%2026-07-06 12:39
Caesars2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -12.61%E -6.15%K -12.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -0.175%E -0.101%K -0.237%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-06 12:39
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -12.61%E -6.15%K -12.01%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -1.90%E -1.11%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-06 12:39
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.47%E -1.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Bally Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%EV -12.18%E -5.91%K -11.49%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -2.47%E -1.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 12:39
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -3.62%E -2.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 12:40
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 12:40
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 12:40
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-06 12:20
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%EV -14.74%E -7.37%K -14.74%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-06 12:40
Pinnacle2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV +1.46%E +0.613%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-06 12:35
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-06 12:40
LeoVegas2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:40
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:40
Coolbet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:40
Hard Rock Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:39
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.35%E -3.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 12:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.35%E -3.88%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.34%E -3.24%K -8.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 12:40
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Unibet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Casumo2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Unibet (NL)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
betPARX2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Svenska Spel2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
ATG (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.09%EV -11.33%E -5.45%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.91%EV -5.91%E -3.61%K -9.24%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-06 12:39
BetOnline.ag2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +1.46%E +0.613%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-06 12:39
ReBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -6.49%E -3.98%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-06 10:35
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -1.53%E -0.661%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-06 12:20
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 07:49
GTbets2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:10
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-04 18:25
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 08:45
BetUS2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 12:35
Marathon Bet2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -2.38%E -1.04%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 12:35
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 12:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.08%E -1.81%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-06 07:45
Grosvenor2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.94%E -2.21%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 12:40
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.94%E -2.21%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 12:40
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-06 12:40
Betsson2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%EV -7.92%E -3.67%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%EV -7.06%E -4.36%K -11.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-06 12:40
BetAnything2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +2.31%E +0.963%K +1.65%G +0.038%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-06 12:20
FanDuel2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV +0.606%E +0.257%K +0.445%G +0.003%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-06 12:34
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-06 12:20
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.94%E -2.21%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 12:40
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-06 12:40
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.63%E -4.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-06 12:40
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV +2.31%E +0.963%K +1.65%G +0.038%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-05 11:19
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV +1.46%E +0.613%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-06 07:55
Dabble (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:15
MyBookie.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:34
TAB2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 12:40
SportsBet2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -0.247%E -0.106%K -0.184%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-06 12:35
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 12:35
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.95%E -0.849%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-06 12:19
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-06 12:40
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.48%E -4.99%K -9.53%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -8.21%E -5.13%K -13.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-06 12:40
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -1.10%E -0.474%K -0.833%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -9.35%E -5.92%K -16.13%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 12:24
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -14.74%E -7.37%K -14.74%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%EV -9.35%E -5.92%K -16.13%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-06 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.87%EV -7.07%E -3.24%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%EV -9.93%E -6.32%K -17.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-06 12:40
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV +3.59%E +1.48%K +2.51%G +0.090%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -10.50%E -6.73%K -18.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 12:40
NordicBet2.31I 43.29%NM 40.00%EV -1.53%E -0.661%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.00%EV -11.65%E -7.56%K -21.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-06 12:40
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +1.46%E +0.613%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -12.22%E -7.99%K -23.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 12:40
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +1.46%E +0.613%K +1.06%G +0.015%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -12.22%E -7.99%K -23.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-06 12:40
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV +0.179%E +0.076%K +0.133%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -12.22%E -7.99%K -23.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-06 12:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
ProphetX2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-07-06 12:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-07-06 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-07-06 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%0.9%2026-07-06 12:40
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-07-06 12:40
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%2.1%2026-07-06 12:38
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 44.47%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%9.1%2026-07-06 12:40