L’École des cotes

Elsa Jacquemot v Naomi Osaka

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-29 15:20 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

62 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Elsa Jacquemot (Local)

Prévision 17.37%5.76cote équitable
EV +30.27%
Avantage +4.04%
Kelly +4.66%
Croissance +1.41%

avec la cote maximale 7.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.59%17.61%17.04%21.20%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.205.365.407.5023.81%18.66%18.52%13.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Naomi Osaka (Visiteur)

Prévision 82.63%1.21cote équitable
EV -1.67%
Avantage -1.40%
Kelly -8.79%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.19

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
78.80%82.39%82.96%87.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.081.141.141.1992.59%87.61%87.72%84.03%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (62 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Ladbrokes (UK)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +30.27%E +4.04%K +4.66%G +1.41%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -10.76%E -9.96%K -134.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:50
BoyleSports6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +12.90%E +1.99%K +2.35%G +0.303%1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:50
MyBookie.ag6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +8.56%E +1.37%K +1.63%G +0.140%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 14:50
BetRivers6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +4.22%E +0.703%K +0.844%G +0.036%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-29 14:30
Unibet (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +4.22%E +0.703%K +0.844%G +0.036%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-29 14:51
FanDuel6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +4.22%E +0.703%K +0.844%G +0.036%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 14:50
Caesars6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +4.22%E +0.703%K +0.844%G +0.036%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.28%E -7.46%K -75.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 14:31
GTbets5.88I 17.01%NM 16.24%EV +2.13%E +0.363%K +0.437%G +0.009%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.76%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:29
betPARX5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -0.124%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:40
Pinnacle5.73I 17.45%NM 16.72%EV -0.471%E -0.082%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.28%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 14:30
DraftKings5.73I 17.45%NM 16.72%EV -0.471%E -0.082%K -0.100%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 83.28%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 14:51
NordicBet5.64I 17.73%NM 16.44%EV -2.03%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.56%EV -8.28%E -7.46%K -75.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 14:51
Betsson5.64I 17.73%NM 16.44%EV -2.03%E -0.361%K -0.438%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.56%EV -8.28%E -7.46%K -75.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-29 14:51
Ladbrokes (AU)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.73%E -0.487%K -0.593%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:30
Neds5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -2.73%E -0.487%K -0.593%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:30
Betway5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 14:30
BetAnything5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 14:30
Unibet (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:30
Everygame5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:30
Betr (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:30
BetUS5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:22
betfred_uk5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:30
William Hill5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 14:50
theScore Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 14:50
NetBet (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 14:31
Tipico (DE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:50
888sport5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:51
Mr Green (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:51
888sport (SE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -4.47%E -0.812%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:51
Unibet (NL)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 14:51
Casumo5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 14:51
Svenska Spel5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 14:51
SportsBet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -6.20%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:43
Grosvenor5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -7.94%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-29 14:51
TABtouch5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -7.94%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-29 14:51
Coral5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -8.81%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 14:51
Bally Bet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -8.81%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-29 14:51
LiveScore Bet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -8.81%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:50
Virgin Bet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -8.81%E -1.68%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-29 14:50
BetOnline.ag5.24I 19.08%NM 18.38%EV -8.98%E -1.71%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.62%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-29 14:40
PMU (FR)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -9.68%E -1.86%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-29 14:51
Bovada5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:49
Dabble (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:40
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:51
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-29 14:50
Sky Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -13.15%E -2.63%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-29 14:50
Unibet (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -14.89%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.32%E -2.84%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:50
Unibet4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -14.89%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.32%E -2.84%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:50
ATG (SE)4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -14.89%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -3.32%E -2.84%K -19.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 14:50
Winamax (DE)4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -14.89%E -3.04%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.40%EV -7.45%E -6.66%K -62.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-29 14:50
Fanatics4.85I 20.62%NM 19.70%EV -15.76%E -3.25%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.30%EV -1.67%E -1.40%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 14:50
PlayUp4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -15.76%E -3.25%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 14:40
Fliff4.85I 20.62%NM 19.03%EV -15.76%E -3.25%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-29 14:51
Betclic (FR)4.85I 20.62%NM 18.90%EV -15.76%E -3.25%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.10%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-29 14:49
Coolbet4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -16.62%E -3.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 14:50
TAB4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -16.62%E -3.46%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.15%E -3.58%K -25.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:50
PointsBet (AU)4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -17.49%E -3.68%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -4.15%E -3.58%K -25.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-29 14:51
LeoVegas4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -20.10%E -4.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-29 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -20.10%E -4.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.14%EV -5.80%E -5.09%K -41.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-29 14:50
Bet Victor4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -21.84%E -4.85%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -2.50%E -2.12%K -13.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-29 14:50
Winamax (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -27.05%E -6.44%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -50.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-06-29 14:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94%0.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94%0.6%2026-06-29 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-06-29 14:51
Matchbook6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54%1.1%2026-06-29 14:51
Smarkets6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57%1.4%2026-06-29 14:51
ProphetX5.90I 16.95%NM 16.43%1.16I 86.21%NM 83.57%3.2%2026-06-29 14:51
Novig5.56I 17.99%NM 17.01%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.99%5.7%2026-06-29 14:51