Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula v Emma Navarro

2026-09-08 15:30 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jessica Pegula (Local)

Predicción 77.61%1.29momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -8.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
75.10%77.61%77.70%80.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.181.231.231.2684.75%81.55%81.30%79.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Emma Navarro (Visitante)

Predicción 22.39%4.47momio equitativo
EV +7.45%
Ventaja +1.55%
Kelly +1.96%
Crecimiento +0.146%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.00%22.39%22.30%24.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.184.204.8026.32%23.93%23.81%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jessica Pegula (Local): 77.61%; Emma Navarro (Visitante): 22.39%. Para Emma Navarro (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.47. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.80, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +7.45%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -6.86%E -5.72%K -34.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +7.45%E +1.55%K +1.96%G +0.146%4.2%2026-09-07 03:30
GTbets🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -6.09%E -5.03%K -28.98%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV +0.960%E +0.213%K +0.273%G +0.003%4.8%2026-09-07 03:55
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.40%EV -3.76%E -3.03%K -15.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.60%EV +0.736%E +0.164%K +0.210%G +0.002%2.9%2026-09-07 08:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -1.50%E -0.342%K -0.442%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 08:05
FanDuel🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.50%E -0.342%K -0.442%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-07 06:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -7.64%E -6.42%K -40.21%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -1.50%E -0.342%K -0.442%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 07:45
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -8.42%E -7.13%K -46.75%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -1.50%E -0.342%K -0.442%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 06:20
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.72%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.28%EV -2.40%E -0.550%K -0.714%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-07 07:50
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -3.07%E -0.709%K -0.922%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 06:20
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.86%E -5.72%K -34.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.07%E -0.709%K -0.922%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 06:18
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -3.74%E -0.870%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 08:05
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.76%E -3.03%K -15.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.86%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 07:38
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.76%E -3.03%K -15.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.86%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 07:55
Bet Right🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -4.86%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 07:50
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.86%E -1.14%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-07 07:34
Betsson🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.76%EV -6.09%E -5.03%K -28.98%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.24%EV -5.31%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 08:05
NordicBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.76%EV -6.09%E -5.03%K -28.98%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.24%EV -5.31%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 08:04
TABtouch🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Casumo🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:56
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Bally Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 08:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 08:09
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 08:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 08:05
Caesars🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.86%E -5.72%K -34.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.98%E -1.42%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 03:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -7.10%E -1.71%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 07:40
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -7.55%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 08:05
theScore Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.53%E -3.69%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.22%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -8.22%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 07:54
Fliff🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.09%E -5.03%K -28.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -8.22%E -2.00%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 08:05
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 07:59
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 07:35
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 07:34
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 07:40
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 07:34
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.31%E -4.35%K -24.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.46%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 07:35
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.10%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.90%EV -10.90%E -2.74%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 07:35
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -6.86%E -5.72%K -34.31%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -11.58%E -2.93%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 08:05
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -12.70%E -3.26%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -2.98%E -2.39%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -12.70%E -3.26%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-07 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -2.21%E -1.75%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -14.93%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 07:59
Neds🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -2.21%E -1.75%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -14.93%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 08:00
ReBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.15%EV -7.64%E -6.42%K -40.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.85%EV -14.93%E -3.93%K -5.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 08:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.27I 78.74%NM 77.76%4.44I 22.52%NM 22.24%1.3%2026-09-07 07:35
ProphetX1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-09-07 07:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-09-07 07:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-09-07 07:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-09-07 07:40
Matchbook1.26I 79.37%NM 78.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%1.6%2026-09-07 07:45
Smarkets1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%2.7%2026-09-07 08:15