Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gabriela Knutson v Eva Lys

2026-08-31 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

39%

61%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gabriela Knutson (Local)

Predicción 39.17%2.55momio equitativo

EV +1.85%

Ventaja +0.712%

Kelly +1.16%

Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

36.59%39.21%39.16%41.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.252.382.352.6044.44%41.97%42.55%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Eva Lys (Visitante)

Predicción 60.83%1.64momio equitativo

EV -1.46%

Ventaja -0.902%

Kelly -2.36%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

58.67%60.79%60.84%63.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.481.561.561.6267.57%64.11%64.10%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Gabriela Knutson (Local): 39.17%; Eva Lys (Visitante): 60.83%. Para Gabriela Knutson (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.55. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.60, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.85%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
888sport🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.85%E +0.712%K +1.16%G +0.021%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 09:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.85%E +0.712%K +1.16%G +0.021%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.85%E +0.712%K +1.16%G +0.021%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 09:45
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.07%E -0.826%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.72%E -3.69%K -10.40%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-29 10:05
Neds🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.07%E -0.826%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.54%E -4.96%K -14.51%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.07%E -0.826%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.54%E -4.96%K -14.51%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -2.07%E -0.826%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -9.98%E -6.74%K -20.79%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-29 10:00
Coral🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -2.07%E -0.826%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -9.98%E -6.74%K -20.79%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-08-29 09:55
DraftKings🎯	2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -2.46%E -0.987%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -7.54%E -4.96%K -14.51%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-29 09:50
GTbets🎯	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV -2.85%E -1.15%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -5.72%E -3.69%K -10.40%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-29 10:05
Coolbet🎯	2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -3.24%E -1.31%K -2.20%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -2.68%E -1.67%K -4.46%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-08-29 09:59
SportsBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.02%E -1.64%K -2.78%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-29 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -4.02%E -1.64%K -2.78%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-29 10:05
Marathon Bet🎯	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.29%EV -5.59%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.11%E -3.28%K -9.13%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 09:59
Bet Right🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.50%E -2.87%K -7.90%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-29 09:55
betano_uk🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.50%E -2.87%K -7.90%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-29 09:59
Fanatics🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.11%E -3.28%K -9.13%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 09:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.72%E -3.69%K -10.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-29 10:05
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.72%E -3.69%K -10.40%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-29 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.33%E -4.11%K -11.72%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-29 10:05
theScore Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.98%E -2.49%K -4.27%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.94%E -4.53%K -13.09%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-29 10:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-29 10:04
betfred_uk🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.77%E -2.84%K -4.90%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.50%E -2.87%K -7.90%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-29 09:50
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-08-29 06:20
PlayUp🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.89%E -2.46%K -6.71%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-29 09:45
TAB🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.72%E -3.69%K -10.40%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-29 09:45
LeoVegas🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.94%E -4.53%K -13.09%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-08-29 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.94%E -3.38%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.54%E -4.96%K -14.51%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-29 10:05
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 39.64%EV -8.72%E -3.74%K -6.56%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%EV -6.94%E -4.53%K -13.09%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-29 09:50
ReBet🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.37%EV -9.51%E -4.12%K -7.26%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.63%EV -8.76%E -5.84%K -17.52%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-08-29 10:05
BoyleSports🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.46%E -0.902%K -2.36%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-29 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Unibet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Virgin Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Casumo🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
TABtouch🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
BetRivers🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Grosvenor🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
betPARX🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Svenska Spel🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Bally Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:14
ATG (SE)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.07%E -1.29%K -3.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-08-29 06:15
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -9.90%E -4.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 60.69%EV -9.37%E -6.29%K -19.12%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-08-29 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -10.68%E -4.69%K -8.35%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -2.68%E -1.67%K -4.46%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-29 06:15
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -11.86%E -5.27%K -9.49%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -9.98%E -6.74%K -20.79%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-08-29 10:05

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Kalshi◎	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61%	1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39%	1.2%	2026-08-29 10:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%	7.4%	2026-08-29 10:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%	7.4%	2026-08-29 10:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%	7.9%	2026-08-29 10:01
Smarkets◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 40.16%	1.49I 67.11%NM 59.84%	12.2%	2026-08-29 09:50
Matchbook◎	2.48I 40.32%NM 32.61%	1.20I 83.33%NM 67.39%	23.7%	2026-08-29 10:01