Language:English
Karolina Muchova v Coco Gauff
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karolina Muchova (Local)
Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV +6.35%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.134%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%26.64%26.38%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.393.314.0032.79%29.51%30.21%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Coco Gauff (Visit)
Prediction 73.41%1.36fair odd
EV -0.158%
Edge -0.116%
Kelly -0.438%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%73.36%73.62%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.311.331.3681.97%76.36%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karolina Muchova (Local): 26.59%; Coco Gauff (Visit): 73.41%. For Karolina Muchova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +6.35%E +1.59%K +2.12%G +0.134% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.44%E -8.55%K -47.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +6.35%E +1.59%K +2.12%G +0.134% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.44%E -8.55%K -47.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.00%EV +6.08%E +1.52%K +2.03%G +0.124% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.00%EV -7.50%E -5.95%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +1.03%E +0.271%K +0.367%G +0.004% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -10.44%E -8.55%K -47.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.300%E -0.080%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.30%E -4.11%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.300%E -0.080%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.23%E -6.59%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.300%E -0.080%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.23%E -6.59%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.300%E -0.080%K -0.109%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.23%E -6.59%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -2.96%E -0.811%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -8.23%E -6.59%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.30%E -4.11%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.76%E -5.33%K -25.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.76%E -5.33%K -25.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.50%E -5.95%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.50%E -5.95%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 12:38 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -4.29%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -8.97%E -7.23%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -5.62%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -7.50%E -5.95%K -28.84%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -5.62%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -8.97%E -7.23%K -37.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.30%E -4.11%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.30%E -4.11%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.03%E -4.71%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.03%E -4.71%K -21.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.76%E -5.33%K -25.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -6.95%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.23%E -6.59%K -32.93%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.10%EV -7.48%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.90%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -10.40%E -3.09%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -10.40%E -3.09%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 12:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.20%EV -12.00%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.80%EV -4.56%E -3.51%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-17 12:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -0.892%E -0.661%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 12:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 12:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-17 12:36 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.30%E -4.11%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 12:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -13.86%E -4.28%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-17 12:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -17.58%E -5.67%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -0.158%E -0.116%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -17.58%E -5.67%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -17.58%E -5.67%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -1.63%E -1.21%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -17.58%E -5.67%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -17.58%E -5.67%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -18.91%E -6.20%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -2.36%E -1.77%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 12:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 1.3% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.14% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.86% | 2.0% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.14% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.86% | 2.0% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82% | 3.8% | 2026-04-17 12:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43% | 4.5% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.76% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.24% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 12:40 |