Language:English
Daria Kasatkina v Liudmila Samsonova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daria Kasatkina (Local)
Prediction 54.48%1.84fair odd
EV +0.787%
Edge +0.425%
Kelly +0.926%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%55.12%53.98%65.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.711.701.8569.93%58.43%58.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Liudmila Samsonova (Visit)
Prediction 45.52%2.20fair odd
EV +22.91%
Edge +8.48%
Kelly +13.47%
Growth +3.09%
assuming max odds 2.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.62%44.88%46.02%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.092.052.7054.05%47.78%48.78%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daria Kasatkina (Local): 54.48%; Liudmila Samsonova (Visit): 45.52%. For Liudmila Samsonova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -22.09%E -15.45%K -51.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV +22.91%E +8.48%K +13.47%G +3.09% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -16.10%E -10.46%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +16.08%E +6.30%K +10.37%G +1.67% | 4.2% | 2026-05-18 08:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -15.56%E -10.04%K -28.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV +11.53%E +4.70%K +7.95%G +0.916% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -17.19%E -11.31%K -33.06%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV +9.25%E +3.85%K +6.61%G +0.611% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV +5.15%E +2.23%K +3.93%G +0.203% | 3.9% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.74%E -7.25%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.70%E +2.04%K +3.61%G +0.170% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 08:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.74%E -7.25%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.70%E +2.04%K +3.61%G +0.170% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 08:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +2.42%E +1.08%K +1.94%G +0.047% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -9.56%E -5.76%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV +1.51%E +0.678%K +1.23%G +0.019% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -11.74%E -7.25%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +0.145%E +0.066%K +0.121%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-18 08:41 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.98%EV -13.92%E -8.81%K -24.00%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -0.765%E -0.351%K -0.648%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-18 08:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.68%E -0.776%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.02%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98%EV -2.59%E -1.21%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -3.50%E -1.65%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -9.56%E -5.76%K -14.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -4.41%E -2.10%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -10.11%E -6.13%K -15.55%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -5.32%E -2.56%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.03%E -1.70%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -6.23%E -3.02%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -9.02%E -5.40%K -13.46%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -6.68%E -3.26%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.89%EV -12.29%E -7.63%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.11%EV -7.14%E -3.50%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.42%EV -3.57%E -2.02%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.58%EV -7.59%E -3.74%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -0.847%E -0.466%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -8.05%E -3.98%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.303%E -0.165%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 08:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -1.39%E -0.769%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.94%E -1.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-18 08:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.94%E -1.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-18 08:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.03%E -1.70%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.57%E -2.02%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.66%E -2.66%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.84%E -4.00%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.39%E -4.34%K -10.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.96%E -4.48%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -1.39%E -0.769%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.63%EV -9.41%E -4.73%K -9.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV +0.787%E +0.425%K +0.926%G +0.007% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -9.87%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 08:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV +0.787%E +0.425%K +0.926%G +0.007% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -9.87%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 08:36 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -0.303%E -0.165%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -9.87%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 08:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -1.94%E -1.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -9.87%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-18 08:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -6.30%E -3.66%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.49%EV -9.87%E -4.98%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -0.303%E -0.165%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -0.847%E -0.466%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 08:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -3.03%E -1.70%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 08:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -3.03%E -1.70%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 08:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.66%E -2.66%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.23%E -5.76%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.59%EV -8.47%E -5.04%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.41%EV -11.69%E -6.03%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV +0.787%E +0.425%K +0.926%G +0.007% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -13.97%E -7.39%K -15.69%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +0.787%E +0.425%K +0.926%G +0.007% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-18 08:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.68%EV -5.75%E -3.32%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.32%EV -15.79%E -8.53%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-18 08:31 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00% | 0.6% | 2026-05-18 08:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43% | 1.6% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.9% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Novig◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43% | 2.8% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 56.10% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 43.90% | 18.0% | 2026-05-18 08:45 |