La escuela de los momios

Karolina Pliskova v McCartney Kessler

Inicio: 2026-06-08 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Karolina Pliskova (Local)

Predicción 55.18%1.81momio equitativo
EV -0.679%
Ventaja -0.377%
Kelly -0.849%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.63%55.34%55.12%57.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.601.721.731.8062.50%58.09%57.80%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

McCartney Kessler (Visitante)

Predicción 44.82%2.23momio equitativo
EV +0.849%
Ventaja +0.377%
Kelly +0.679%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.11%44.66%44.88%47.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.102.102.2550.00%47.52%47.62%44.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -6.20%E -3.65%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV +0.849%E +0.377%K +0.679%G +0.006%3.3%2026-06-08 13:09
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -8.40%E -5.06%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV +0.401%E +0.179%K +0.323%G +0.001%4.9%2026-06-08 13:09
BetAnything1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.65%E -3.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-08 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.85%E -4.70%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-08 13:09
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -8.40%E -5.06%K -12.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-08 13:09
SportsBet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -9.51%E -5.80%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -10.61%E -6.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-08 13:09
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -11.71%E -7.32%K -19.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -1.39%E -0.633%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-08 12:58
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 55.22%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.78%EV -2.74%E -1.26%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.9%2026-06-08 13:10
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.85%E -4.70%K -11.72%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.63%E -1.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-08 13:09
DraftKings1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -4.08%E -1.91%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-08 13:09
Unibet (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.53%E -2.13%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-08 13:08
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-08 13:09
LowVig.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-08 13:09
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.99%E -2.29%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-08 13:09
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.98%E -2.35%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-08 13:37
Bet Right1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -5.43%E -2.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-08 13:39
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.99%E -2.29%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-08 13:09
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-08 13:09
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.65%E -3.30%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-08 13:09
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.20%E -3.65%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.96%E -5.43%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-08 13:09
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.96%E -5.43%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-08 13:09
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.96%E -5.43%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-08 13:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.96%E -5.43%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -5.87%E -2.80%K -5.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-08 13:09
PointsBet (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.54%E -2.63%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.77%E -3.26%K -6.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-08 13:49
Grosvenor1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Casumo1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Unibet (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Unibet (NL)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Unibet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
TABtouch1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Bally Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:10
ATG (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
betPARX1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:10
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.89%E -1.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.67%E -3.72%K -7.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-08 13:09
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.33%E -1.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -8.12%E -3.96%K -7.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-08 13:09
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.99%E -2.29%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -9.46%E -4.68%K -9.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-08 13:09
Virgin Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -3.99%E -2.29%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -9.46%E -4.68%K -9.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-08 13:09
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.679%E -0.377%K -0.849%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-08 13:09
PMU (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.09%E -2.96%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.36%E -5.18%K -10.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-08 13:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-06-08 13:49
Matchbook1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-06-08 13:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-06-08 13:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-06-08 13:29
Smarkets1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%2.2%2026-06-08 13:49
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 55.08%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.92%2.6%2026-06-08 13:39