Language:English
Francesca Jones v Jessica Pegula
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francesca Jones (Local)
Prediction 7.18%13.92fair odd
EV +44.64%
Edge +2.22%
Kelly +2.33%
Growth +1.04%
assuming max odds 20.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.87%7.41%7.28%10.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.9213.0020.1411.11%7.74%7.69%4.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Pegula (Visit)
Prediction 92.82%1.08fair odd
EV -0.684%
Edge -0.640%
Kelly -9.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.73%92.59%92.72%95.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0799.01%97.28%97.09%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesca Jones (Local): 7.18%; Jessica Pegula (Visit): 92.82%. For Francesca Jones (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.92. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +44.64%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 20.14I 4.97%NM 4.87%EV +44.64%E +2.22%K +2.33%G +1.04% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.13%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +22.09%E +1.30%K +1.38%G +0.305% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +14.91%E +0.932%K +0.994%G +0.148% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 15.20I 6.58%NM 6.40%EV +9.16%E +0.603%K +0.645%G +0.059% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.60%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 15.16I 6.60%NM 6.36%EV +8.87%E +0.585%K +0.627%G +0.056% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.64%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 15:57 |
| Betway🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| 888sport🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +7.72%E +0.515%K +0.552%G +0.043% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.63%EV +4.13%E +0.285%K +0.306%G +0.013% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.37%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 14.10I 7.09%NM 6.75%EV +1.26%E +0.089%K +0.096%G +0.001% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.25%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +0.542%E +0.039%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +0.542%E +0.039%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -3.05%E -0.226%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -3.05%E -0.226%K -0.244%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 13.34I 7.50%NM 7.43%EV -4.20%E -0.315%K -0.340%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.57%EV -0.684%E -0.640%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 1.0% | 2026-03-21 15:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -2.54%E -2.42%K -50.81%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 15:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 15:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -6.64%E -0.511%K -0.553%G +0.000% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.25%E -6.19%K -625.34%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -10.23%E -0.818%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 15:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -10.23%E -0.818%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -13.82%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.82%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.82%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -17.41%E -1.51%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -19.21%E -1.71%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -21.00%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -21.00%E -1.91%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -24.59%E -2.34%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -24.59%E -2.34%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -28.18%E -2.82%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -3.47%E -3.34%K -86.72%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 16:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -28.18%E -2.82%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 16:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -28.18%E -2.82%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.33%E -5.22%K -266.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV -29.62%E -3.02%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -2.54%E -2.42%K -50.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 15:58 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -35.37%E -3.93%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.40%E -4.27%K -146.57%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 16:07 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.06% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.98% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.02% | 1.3% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |
| Novig◎ | 17.54I 5.70%NM 5.60% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.40% | 1.9% | 2026-03-21 16:09 |
| Smarkets◎ | 19.49I 5.13%NM 4.97% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.03% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 16:10 |