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Dalma Galfi v Elvina Kalieva
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dalma Galfi (Local)
Prediction 31.13%3.21fair odd
EV +149.05%
Edge +18.63%
Kelly +21.29%
Growth +31.74%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.70%33.80%24.92%57.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.623.273.908.0061.73%30.62%25.64%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elvina Kalieva (Visit)
Prediction 68.87%1.45fair odd
EV +49.44%
Edge +22.79%
Kelly +42.26%
Growth +20.90%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.97%66.20%75.08%88.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.501.242.1794.34%66.47%80.65%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalma Galfi (Local): 31.13%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 68.87%. For Dalma Galfi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 27 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +149.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAB🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +149.05%E +18.63%K +21.29%G +31.74% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -27.00%E -25.47%K -449.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 19:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +34.80%E +8.04%K +10.45%G +3.64% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -17.36%E -14.46%K -86.79%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +32.31%E +7.60%K +9.94%G +3.21% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -17.36%E -14.46%K -86.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +30.75%E +7.32%K +9.61%G +2.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -15.98%E -13.10%K -72.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +30.75%E +7.32%K +9.61%G +2.96% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -15.98%E -13.10%K -72.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +27.64%E +6.74%K +8.92%G +2.46% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +24.53%E +6.13%K +8.18%G +2.01% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV +24.53%E +6.13%K +8.18%G +2.01% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +24.53%E +6.13%K +8.18%G +2.01% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -15.98%E -13.10%K -72.64%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +22.97%E +5.81%K +7.79%G +1.79% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +22.97%E +5.81%K +7.79%G +1.79% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +22.97%E +5.81%K +7.79%G +1.79% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +22.97%E +5.81%K +7.79%G +1.79% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV +22.97%E +5.81%K +7.79%G +1.79% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -15.29%E -12.43%K -66.49%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.28%EV +22.35%E +5.69%K +7.63%G +1.70% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.72%EV -13.23%E -10.50%K -50.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV +21.41%E +5.49%K +7.38%G +1.58% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -15.98%E -13.10%K -72.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV +21.41%E +5.49%K +7.38%G +1.58% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -16.67%E -13.78%K -79.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV +21.41%E +5.49%K +7.38%G +1.58% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.32%EV -16.67%E -13.78%K -79.38%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +16.74%E +4.46%K +6.09%G +1.02% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -13.91%E -11.13%K -55.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV +16.74%E +4.46%K +6.09%G +1.02% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -14.60%E -11.78%K -60.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV +16.74%E +4.46%K +6.09%G +1.02% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -15.98%E -13.10%K -72.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -22.17%E -8.87%K -14.78%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +3.30%E +2.20%K +6.61%G +0.218% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 18:46 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -25.91%E -10.89%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV +10.19%E +6.37%K +16.98%G +1.73% | 4.5% | 2026-03-19 18:22 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -40.54%E -21.22%K -44.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +26.03%E +14.22%K +31.36%G +8.16% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 18:52 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -41.78%E -22.34%K -48.03%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +28.78%E +15.39%K +33.09%G +9.52% | 7.0% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -42.41%E -22.92%K -49.89%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +27.41%E +14.81%K +32.24%G +8.84% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -43.03%E -23.51%K -51.84%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +37.74%E +18.87%K +37.74%G +14.24% | 4.6% | 2026-03-19 18:52 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -43.96%E -24.42%K -54.95%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +34.29%E +17.59%K +36.10%G +12.38% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 15:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -44.59%E -25.05%K -57.16%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV +43.94%E +21.02%K +40.31%G +17.71% | 4.0% | 2026-03-19 15:37 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -44.59%E -25.05%K -57.16%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV +43.94%E +21.02%K +40.31%G +17.71% | 4.0% | 2026-03-19 15:37 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -44.90%E -25.37%K -58.31%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV +28.78%E +15.39%K +33.09%G +9.52% | 10.0% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -45.52%E -26.01%K -60.69%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +41.18%E +20.09%K +39.22%G +16.15% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 15:36 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -46.14%E -26.67%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +37.74%E +18.87%K +37.74%G +14.24% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 18:52 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -46.14%E -26.67%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +37.74%E +18.87%K +37.74%G +14.24% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -46.14%E -26.67%K -63.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +37.74%E +18.87%K +37.74%G +14.24% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -46.77%E -27.35%K -65.87%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +48.07%E +22.36%K +41.80%G +20.09% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 18:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -48.63%E -29.47%K -74.82%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV +49.44%E +22.79%K +42.26%G +20.90% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 15:36 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -49.57%E -30.60%K -79.95%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV +48.07%E +22.36%K +41.80%G +20.09% | 8.2% | 2026-03-19 15:36 |
| Pinnacle🎯⚠ implausible | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16%EV -64.20%E -55.83%K -427.99%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84%EV +354.53%E +53.72%K +63.31%G +224.45% | 2.1% | 2026-03-19 18:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36% | 1.8% | 2026-03-19 18:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.45I 22.47%NM 22.07% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.93% | 1.8% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74% | 2.1% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17% | 4.4% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Novig◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.39% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.61% | 8.0% | 2026-03-19 18:53 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 98.0% | 2026-03-19 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 98.0% | 2026-03-19 18:56 |