Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Hailey Baptiste
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 87.22%1.15fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -19.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.03%87.34%87.22%89.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.1295.24%92.76%92.59%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hailey Baptiste (Visit)
Prediction 12.78%7.83fair odd
EV +20.73%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +2.45%
Growth +0.509%
assuming max odds 9.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.26%12.66%12.78%14.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.657.509.4516.00%13.07%13.33%10.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 87.22%; Hailey Baptiste (Visit): 12.78%. For Hailey Baptiste (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.83. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.66%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 10.34%EV +20.73%E +2.19%K +2.45%G +0.509% | 2.3% | 2026-03-25 23:06 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV +19.58%E +2.09%K +2.34%G +0.459% | 4.1% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV +19.58%E +2.09%K +2.34%G +0.459% | 4.1% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.93%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.07%EV +9.87%E +1.15%K +1.30%G +0.128% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 22:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 23:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 6.1% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 6.1% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -8.41%E -8.01%K -168.30%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 7.0% | 2026-03-25 23:06 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -8.41%E -8.01%K -168.30%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +8.60%E +1.01%K +1.15%G +0.099% | 7.0% | 2026-03-25 23:01 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.70%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.30%EV +7.32%E +0.871%K +0.989%G +0.072% | 5.4% | 2026-03-25 22:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.56%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.36I 11.96%NM 11.44%EV +6.81%E +0.814%K +0.925%G +0.063% | 4.6% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%EV +4.76%E +0.581%K +0.662%G +0.032% | 4.8% | 2026-03-25 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 22:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 6.0% | 2026-03-25 23:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +2.21%E +0.276%K +0.316%G +0.007% | 6.8% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -0.985%E -0.127%K -0.146%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.97%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.03%EV -0.985%E -0.127%K -0.146%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-25 23:06 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -4.18%E -0.557%K -0.643%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-25 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -7.37%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-25 23:08 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -7.37%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-25 23:07 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -7.37%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.09%EV -7.54%E -7.12%K -125.71%G +0.000% | 7.15I 13.99%NM 12.91%EV -8.65%E -1.21%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.37%EV -2.31%E -2.06%K -19.24%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.63%EV -9.29%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.47%EV -4.05%E -3.69%K -40.54%G +0.000% | 7.03I 14.22%NM 13.53%EV -10.18%E -1.45%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.05%E -3.69%K -40.54%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -10.57%E -1.51%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.05%E -3.69%K -40.54%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -13.76%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-25 23:11 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.93%E -4.52%K -54.73%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -13.76%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -13.76%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -13.76%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.32%EV -6.67%E -6.23%K -95.29%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -13.76%E -2.04%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -3.18%E -2.87%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -14.40%E -2.15%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.80%E -5.37%K -72.48%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -16.96%E -2.61%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-25 23:06 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -4.05%E -3.69%K -40.54%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -20.15%E -3.22%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 0.4% | 2026-03-25 23:06 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.52% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.48% | 0.4% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.60% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.40% | 1.3% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 89.32% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.68% | 1.8% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.67% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.33% | 2.1% | 2026-03-25 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.79% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.21% | 6.5% | 2026-03-25 23:10 |