La escuela de los momios

Xinyu Wang v Laura Samson

Inicio: 2026-04-23 10:38 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Xinyu Wang (Local)

Predicción 52.81%1.89momio equitativo
EV +1.39%
Ventaja +0.722%
Kelly +1.51%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.93%53.16%52.63%59.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.791.801.9264.52%55.75%55.56%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Laura Samson (Visitante)

Predicción 47.19%2.12momio equitativo
EV +8.55%
Ventaja +3.72%
Kelly +6.58%
Crecimiento +0.562%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.26%46.84%47.37%51.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.781.971.962.3056.18%50.65%51.02%43.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -17.10%E -10.89%K -29.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +8.55%E +3.72%K +6.58%G +0.562%7.2%2026-04-23 10:33
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -18.15%E -11.71%K -33.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +8.55%E +3.72%K +6.58%G +0.562%8.0%2026-04-23 10:35
Pinnacle1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -10.23%E -6.02%K -14.62%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV +4.77%E +2.15%K +3.91%G +0.187%3.9%2026-04-23 10:30
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -11.82%E -7.08%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +3.83%E +1.74%K +3.19%G +0.122%5.3%2026-04-23 10:33
DraftKings1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -10.76%E -6.37%K -15.59%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV +0.525%E +0.247%K +0.465%G +0.002%6.1%2026-04-23 10:34
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.65%E -5.00%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.891%E -0.424%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 10:34
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.65%E -5.00%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.891%E -0.424%K -0.810%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 10:14
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.82%E -7.08%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -0.891%E -0.424%K -0.810%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 10:30
1xBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.70%EV -2.84%E -1.54%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.30%EV -3.25%E -1.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 10:25
Bovada1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.25%E -1.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 10:15
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.23%E -6.02%K -14.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.25%E -1.59%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 10:34
ReBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.67%E -2.31%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 10:14
Unibet (UK)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.42%E -2.44%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -5.14%E -2.56%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 10:34
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 10:14
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 10:15
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 10:34
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 10:15
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 10:35
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.54%E -3.69%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.65%E -5.00%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.61%E -2.81%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 10:35
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 10:34
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 10:15
BetMGM1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.54%E -3.69%K -8.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:34
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.54%E -3.69%K -8.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -6.55%E -3.31%K -6.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:14
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -7.03%E -3.57%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 10:34
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -7.03%E -3.57%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 10:34
Svenska Spel1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -7.03%E -3.57%K -7.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 10:34
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -1.25%E -0.671%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -7.50%E -3.83%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-23 10:25
BetRivers1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -4.42%E -2.44%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 10:34
LiveScore Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -5.48%E -3.06%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 10:34
Virgin Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.14%EV -5.48%E -3.06%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 10:34
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.59%E -4.34%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 10:14
Fanatics1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -9.70%E -5.67%K -13.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 10:34
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -9.70%E -5.67%K -13.67%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -7.97%E -4.09%K -8.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 10:35
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -5.48%E -3.06%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -8.44%E -4.35%K -8.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 10:34
Bally Bet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -5.48%E -3.06%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -8.44%E -4.35%K -8.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 10:34
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%EV -7.06%E -4.01%K -9.29%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%EV -8.44%E -4.35%K -8.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 10:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.86%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:35
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.86%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:15
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.86%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:35
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.95%E -2.75%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.86%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.04%EV -7.06%E -4.01%K -9.29%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -9.86%E -5.16%K -10.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 10:34
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.330%E +0.173%K +0.366%G +0.001%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.33%E -5.44%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 10:35
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +1.39%E +0.722%K +1.51%G +0.021%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -11.27%E -6.00%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 10:35
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +1.39%E +0.722%K +1.51%G +0.021%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -11.27%E -6.00%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 10:35
ATG (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV +1.39%E +0.722%K +1.51%G +0.021%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -11.27%E -6.00%K -12.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 10:35
PlayUp1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -0.727%E -0.386%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -11.27%E -6.00%K -12.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 10:25
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -9.18%E -5.33%K -12.74%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.04%EV -12.22%E -6.57%K -14.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 10:34
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV +0.330%E +0.173%K +0.366%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 10:35
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV +0.330%E +0.173%K +0.366%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 10:35
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -0.199%E -0.105%K -0.223%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -12.69%E -6.86%K -14.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:35
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +0.858%E +0.449%K +0.942%G +0.008%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -13.63%E -7.45%K -16.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 10:35
LeoVegas1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -1.25%E -0.671%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -13.63%E -7.45%K -16.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 10:35
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -3.37%E -1.84%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -13.63%E -7.45%K -16.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 10:28
PMU (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.44%EV -3.89%E -2.14%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.56%EV -15.99%E -8.98%K -20.50%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 10:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%1.3%2026-04-23 10:35
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%1.5%2026-04-23 10:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%2.9%2026-04-23 10:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%5.2%2026-04-23 10:34
Novig1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%6.8%2026-04-23 10:34
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%7.5%2026-04-23 10:35