Language:English
Tatjana Maria v Laura Samson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tatjana Maria (Local)
Prediction 45.57%2.19fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.725%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%45.65%45.33%50.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.092.122.2353.19%47.75%47.17%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Laura Samson (Visit)
Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV +5.05%
Edge +2.62%
Kelly +5.43%
Growth +0.275%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.34%54.35%54.67%56.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.701.9360.61%57.86%58.82%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tatjana Maria (Local): 45.57%; Laura Samson (Visit): 54.43%. For Laura Samson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -14.33%E -7.62%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV +5.05%E +2.62%K +5.43%G +0.275% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 08:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -11.14%E -5.71%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +0.698%E +0.377%K +0.822%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -13.42%E -7.06%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV +0.698%E +0.377%K +0.822%G +0.006% | 6.7% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.390%E -0.213%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -3.39%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -1.48%E -0.817%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-21 08:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.14%E -5.71%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.02%E -1.12%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 09:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 09:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.13%E -2.98%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-21 08:58 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.66%E -2.07%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.13%E -2.98%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.20%E -2.39%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 09:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 09:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.03%E -0.943%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.29%E -3.04%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-21 09:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 09:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.86%E -4.43%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.83%E -3.37%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-21 09:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV +1.62%E +0.725%K +1.32%G +0.021% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.14%EV -4.76%E -2.28%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.86%EV -6.38%E -3.71%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -11.14%E -5.71%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -6.92%E -4.05%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.57%E -0.728%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.58%E -3.21%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.47%E -4.39%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.03%E -0.943%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.01%E -4.74%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-21 09:06 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.03%E -0.943%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.01%E -4.74%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.03%E -0.943%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.56%E -5.09%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV +0.706%E +0.320%K +0.584%G +0.004% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.03%E -0.943%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-21 09:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -3.39%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -3.39%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -9.10%E -5.45%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -3.39%E -1.60%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -9.64%E -5.81%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.31%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -10.19%E -6.17%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 08:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 0.9% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 1.2% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.85% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 09:08 |