L’École des cotes

Simona Waltert v Jelena Ostapenko

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-24 12:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Simona Waltert (Local)

Prévision 41.67%2.40cote équitable
EV +0.018%
Avantage +0.007%
Kelly +0.013%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.70%41.77%41.56%44.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.272.282.4046.51%44.13%43.86%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Jelena Ostapenko (Visiteur)

Prévision 58.33%1.71cote équitable
EV -0.846%
Avantage -0.498%
Kelly -1.21%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.99%58.23%58.44%60.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.551.631.631.7064.52%61.36%61.35%58.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +0.018%E +0.007%K +0.013%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -7.85%E -4.97%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 20:40
Pinnacle2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -0.399%E -0.167%K -0.287%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 19:04
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.65%E -0.699%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 18:59
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.65%E -0.699%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 19:00
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.07%E -0.879%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 21:35
GTbets2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.73%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 10:44
1xBet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 19:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-24 02:16
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 21:34
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 00:05
Hard Rock Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 12:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 19:19
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:20
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:19
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:19
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:59
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:59
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.59%E -6.19%K -17.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:10
PointsBet (AU)2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:34
Bet Right2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:49
Unibet (NL)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -0.846%E -0.498%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 12:15
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 19:10
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 19:09
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 19:10
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 02:45
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 19:04
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:35
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 18:59
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.43%E -5.37%K -14.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 19:09
Unibet (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%EV -6.65%E -2.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 01:29
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.07%E -3.17%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:50
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.07%E -3.17%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:49
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -7.48%E -3.37%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:09
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:40
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:39
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-24 00:00
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -3.18%E -1.92%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:15
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 19:09
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 23:20
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:05
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 20:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 19:04
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 19:04
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -10.40%E -4.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -1.43%E -0.846%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:19
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:35
Novig2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-04-24 03:15
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.3%2026-04-24 02:40