La escuela de los momios

Simona Waltert v Jelena Ostapenko

Inicio: 2026-04-24 12:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Simona Waltert (Local)

Predicción 41.67%2.40momio equitativo
EV +0.018%
Ventaja +0.007%
Kelly +0.013%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.70%41.77%41.56%44.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.272.282.4046.51%44.13%43.86%41.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Jelena Ostapenko (Visitante)

Predicción 58.33%1.71momio equitativo
EV -0.846%
Ventaja -0.498%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.99%58.23%58.44%60.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.631.631.7064.52%61.36%61.35%58.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +0.018%E +0.007%K +0.013%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -7.85%E -4.97%K -13.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 20:40
Pinnacle2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -0.399%E -0.167%K -0.287%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 19:04
LowVig.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.65%E -0.699%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 18:59
BetOnline.ag2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -1.65%E -0.699%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 19:00
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.07%E -0.879%K -1.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 21:35
GTbets2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.73%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 10:44
1xBet2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 19:09
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-24 02:16
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 21:34
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 00:05
Hard Rock Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 12:00
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 19:19
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:20
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:19
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 19:19
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:59
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 18:59
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.15%E -1.80%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.59%E -6.19%K -17.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 03:10
PointsBet (AU)2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.57%E -1.99%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 21:34
Bet Right2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-24 02:49
Unibet (NL)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
LeoVegas2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Casumo2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Unibet (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:50
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Svenska Spel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 43.04%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.96%EV -0.846%E -0.498%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 12:15
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 19:10
NordicBet2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 19:09
Betsson2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 19:10
BetUS2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.76%E -2.28%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 02:45
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 19:04
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 11:49
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 21:35
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 18:59
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.23%E -2.77%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.43%E -5.37%K -14.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 19:09
Unibet (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 42.27%EV -6.65%E -2.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.73%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-24 01:29
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.07%E -3.17%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:50
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.07%E -3.17%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.10%E -3.79%K -9.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:49
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -7.48%E -3.37%K -6.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:09
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:40
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -2.01%E -1.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 12:39
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 12:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.60%E -1.55%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-24 00:00
Winamax (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -3.18%E -1.92%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:15
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.35%E -2.65%K -6.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 19:09
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.44%EV -4.93%E -3.02%K -7.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 23:20
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.51%E -3.40%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:05
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 20:44
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 19:04
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.32%E -3.78%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.68%E -4.17%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 19:04
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -10.40%E -4.84%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -1.43%E -0.846%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 12:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%0.8%2026-04-24 00:35
Novig2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%1.5%2026-04-24 03:15
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.3%2026-04-24 02:40