Language:English
Sorana Cirstea v Jelena Ostapenko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sorana Cirstea (Local)
Prediction 58.30%1.72fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%58.27%58.32%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.631.6963.69%61.29%61.35%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jelena Ostapenko (Visit)
Prediction 41.70%2.40fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.497%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%41.73%41.68%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.3746.51%44.16%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sorana Cirstea (Local): 58.30%; Jelena Ostapenko (Visit): 41.70%. For Jelena Ostapenko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.37, with an expected value of -1.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -1.47%E -0.869%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -6.60%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -1.47%E -0.869%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -6.60%E -2.95%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -2.05%E -1.22%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -3.26%E -1.41%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.15%EV -2.63%E -1.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.85%EV -3.26%E -1.41%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.63%E -1.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.63%E -1.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -2.01%E -0.856%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -5.76%E -2.55%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.80%E -2.30%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.35%E -4.81%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -2.01%E -0.856%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.38%E -2.67%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.25%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.75%EV -1.18%E -0.497%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-12 10:56 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.93%E -2.16%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -5.35%E -2.36%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.97%E -3.05%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.68%E -1.59%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 10:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.51%E -1.97%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.65%EV -5.35%E -2.36%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -7.01%E -3.15%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.55%E -3.43%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.01%E -3.15%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.01%E -3.15%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.13%E -3.81%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.72%E -4.20%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.18%E -2.75%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.72%E -4.20%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.27%E -3.76%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.30%E -4.59%K -12.37%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.10%E -1.78%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 10:56 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.47%E -5.39%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.01%E -0.856%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 0.8% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23% | 1.9% | 2026-05-12 10:59 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.60% | 3.2% | 2026-05-12 11:00 |