L’École des cotes

Naomi Osaka v Diana Shnaider

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 12:38 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Naomi Osaka (Local)

Prévision 48.37%2.07cote équitable
EV -0.843%
Avantage -0.411%
Kelly -0.802%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.05%48.23%48.52%50.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.861.931.912.0553.76%51.93%52.36%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Diana Shnaider (Visiteur)

Prévision 51.63%1.94cote équitable
EV +0.163%
Avantage +0.084%
Kelly +0.174%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.35%51.77%51.48%53.95%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.751.851.851.9457.14%54.01%54.05%51.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV -8.58%E -4.54%K -9.64%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV +0.163%E +0.084%K +0.174%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-10 12:26
Pinnacle2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-10 12:30
Hard Rock Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 12:29
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -8.58%E -4.54%K -9.64%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:29
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:29
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:29
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:29
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:29
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -1.39%E -0.726%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 12:30
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.22%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.78%EV -2.42%E -1.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 12:29
LiveScore Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.40%EV -10.03%E -5.39%K -11.67%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.60%EV -2.42%E -1.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 12:30
Virgin Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.40%EV -10.03%E -5.39%K -11.67%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.60%EV -2.42%E -1.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 12:30
Winamax (DE)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -4.23%E -2.14%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -2.93%E -1.56%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 12:30
FanDuel1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.65%E -3.44%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -2.93%E -1.56%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-10 12:29
PMU (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -9.55%E -5.11%K -10.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -2.93%E -1.56%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 12:30
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.45%E -1.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 12:30
Marathon Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.65%E -3.44%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.45%E -1.85%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:29
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.20%E -2.65%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.97%E -2.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 12:30
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.20%E -2.65%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.97%E -2.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 12:29
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -6.16%E -3.18%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:30
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.48%E -2.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:26
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.48%E -2.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:30
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.48%E -2.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:29
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.48%E -2.42%K -5.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 12:15
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.23%E -2.14%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -5.00%E -2.72%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 12:29
Betr (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -6.65%E -3.44%K -7.15%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.00%E -2.72%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 12:26
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 12:30
NetBet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -7.13%E -3.71%K -7.75%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 12:27
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 12:29
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 12:30
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 12:30
Neds1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 12:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -9.07%E -4.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 12:25
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -9.55%E -5.11%K -10.98%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -5.52%E -3.01%K -6.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 12:29
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.03%E -3.31%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 12:29
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -6.03%E -3.31%K -7.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 12:30
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 12:29
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 12:29
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 12:29
Caesars1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.68%E -2.91%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 12:29
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:29
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:30
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:30
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.61%E -3.99%K -8.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 12:29
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.10%E -4.26%K -9.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.07%E -3.93%K -8.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-10 12:21
GTbets1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -4.23%E -2.14%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -7.58%E -4.24%K -9.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 12:27
PointsBet (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -4.23%E -2.14%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -8.61%E -4.87%K -11.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 12:29
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -0.843%E -0.411%K -0.802%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -9.65%E -5.51%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 12:30
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.65%E -5.51%K -12.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 12:30
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -3.26%E -1.63%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.65%E -5.51%K -12.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 12:29
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-05-10 12:29
Novig2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%0.5%2026-05-10 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-05-10 12:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%0.6%2026-05-10 12:30
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 51.01%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.99%1.1%2026-05-10 12:30
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11%1.8%2026-05-10 12:30