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Madison Keys v Peyton Stearns
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Madison Keys (Local)
Prediction 59.75%1.67fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%59.80%59.68%62.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6466.67%63.49%63.69%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Peyton Stearns (Visit)
Prediction 40.25%2.48fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +0.726%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.81%40.20%40.32%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.352.352.5345.45%42.56%42.55%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Madison Keys (Local): 59.75%; Peyton Stearns (Visit): 40.25%. For Peyton Stearns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.53, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV +1.84%E +0.726%K +1.20%G +0.022% | 3.6% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV +1.84%E +0.726%K +1.20%G +0.022% | 3.6% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +0.629%E +0.252%K +0.419%G +0.003% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -1.38%E -0.565%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -2.59%E -1.07%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%EV -2.01%E -1.23%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.61%E -1.60%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -3.40%E -1.42%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -3.80%E -1.59%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 11:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.21%E -1.98%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -4.60%E -1.94%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.60%E -1.94%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.81%E -2.36%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.81%E -2.36%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.58%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -5.41%E -2.30%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.81%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -6.21%E -2.67%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -6.62%E -2.85%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.21%E -1.98%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.00%E -3.14%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-08 11:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -7.42%E -3.23%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-08 11:32 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -8.63%E -3.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.81%E -2.36%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 11:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-08 11:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 11:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -6.79%E -4.35%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.79%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.75%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.40%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.45%E -5.20%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 0.0% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 0.5% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Novig◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.41% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.59% | 2.4% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.31% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.69% | 2.6% | 2026-05-08 11:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 11:35 |