Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.20
assuming max odds 5.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Victoria Mboko (Local): 80.79%; Kimberly Birrell (Visit): 19.21%. For Kimberly Birrell (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +1.81%E +0.342%K +0.421%G +0.008% | 3.6% | 2026-03-06 11:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.52%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.48%EV +0.852%E +0.162%K +0.200%G +0.002% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -0.109%E -0.021%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.28%E -5.42%K -39.27%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -2.03%E -0.398%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 18:51 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.06%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.94%EV -2.99%E -0.592%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-06 18:51 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV -3.05%E -2.54%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.26%EV -3.37%E -0.671%K -0.837%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 11:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 11:51 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 09:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:21 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:21 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:21 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 14:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 09:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 11:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 18:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 17:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 17:11 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 11:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.90%E -6.93%K -56.42%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-05 04:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -8.71%E -7.71%K -66.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -3.95%E -0.790%K -0.988%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 11:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.74%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.26%EV -4.14%E -0.830%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-05 09:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV -4.14%E -0.830%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 18:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.87%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 18:01 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.87%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -5.87%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-06 11:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.28%E -5.42%K -39.27%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -5.87%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 18:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.09%E -6.17%K -47.28%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -5.87%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -6.83%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 18:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.83%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -6.28%E -5.42%K -39.27%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -6.83%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.79%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.28%E -5.42%K -39.27%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -7.79%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -7.98%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.10%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.90%EV -7.98%E -1.67%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.75%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.75%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 15:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.75%E -1.84%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 17:56 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.71%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -9.71%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -10.67%E -2.30%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 18:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -3.86%E -3.24%K -20.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -11.63%E -2.53%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 17:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.63%E -2.53%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 15:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.63%E -2.53%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 15:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.56%E -3.01%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 11:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.56%E -3.01%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.48%E -4.68%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.56%E -3.01%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 15:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -4.67%E -3.96%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -15.48%E -3.52%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-06 18:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 0.5% | 2026-03-06 18:51 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.03% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.97% | 1.2% | 2026-03-06 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.82% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.18% | 2.3% | 2026-03-06 18:50 |