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Elina Svitolina v Iga Swiatek
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elina Svitolina (Local)
Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV +8.35%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +2.97%
Growth +0.248%
assuming max odds 3.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.25%28.79%27.51%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.253.253.8136.36%30.75%30.77%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iga Swiatek (Visit)
Prediction 71.56%1.40fair odd
EV +0.185%
Edge +0.132%
Kelly +0.463%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%71.21%72.49%74.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.4080.00%75.16%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elina Svitolina (Local): 28.44%; Iga Swiatek (Visit): 71.56%. For Elina Svitolina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.81, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.59%EV +8.35%E +2.19%K +2.97%G +0.248% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.41%EV -6.26%E -4.77%K -20.18%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-12 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +6.65%E +1.77%K +2.42%G +0.161% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-12 21:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -10.55%E -8.44%K -42.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 22:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -9.12%E -7.18%K -33.77%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 22:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -9.83%E -7.80%K -37.82%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 21:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.38%E +0.661%K +0.916%G +0.022% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +2.38%E +0.661%K +0.916%G +0.022% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -8.40%E -6.56%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.88%EV +2.10%E +0.584%K +0.809%G +0.017% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.12%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.959%E +0.270%K +0.376%G +0.004% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +0.959%E +0.270%K +0.376%G +0.004% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.40%E -6.56%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 21:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 22:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 22:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -1.89%E -0.546%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-12 22:13 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -1.89%E -0.546%K -0.769%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -10.55%E -8.44%K -42.20%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-12 22:03 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.31%E -0.973%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 21:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-12 22:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -10.42%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -10.42%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -6.26%E -4.77%K -20.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-12 22:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 4.8% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -3.39%E -2.51%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -14.97%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 4.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -3.39%E -2.51%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -17.53%E -6.04%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -1.96%E -1.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -18.10%E -6.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -18.10%E -6.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 7.1% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -1.96%E -1.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -21.79%E -7.92%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 7.8% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -21.79%E -7.92%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001% | 7.8% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04% | 0.0% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 1.8% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44% | 2.9% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.27% | 3.2% | 2026-03-12 22:15 |