L’École des cotes

Elina Svitolina v Iga Swiatek

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-12 22:19 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

60 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Elina Svitolina (Local)

Prévision 28.44%3.52cote équitable
EV +8.35%
Avantage +2.19%
Kelly +2.97%
Croissance +0.248%

avec la cote maximale 3.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.25%28.79%27.51%33.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.253.253.8136.36%30.75%30.77%26.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Iga Swiatek (Visiteur)

Prévision 71.56%1.40cote équitable
EV +0.185%
Avantage +0.132%
Kelly +0.463%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 1.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.27%71.21%72.49%74.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.331.331.4080.00%75.16%75.19%71.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle3.81I 26.25%NM 25.59%EV +8.35%E +2.19%K +2.97%G +0.248%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.41%EV -6.26%E -4.77%K -20.18%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-12 22:05
Unibet (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +6.65%E +1.77%K +2.42%G +0.161%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-12 22:00
LowVig.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 22:00
BetOnline.ag3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-12 22:00
Unibet (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-12 21:59
SportsBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV +5.22%E +1.41%K +1.94%G +0.101%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -10.55%E -8.44%K -42.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 22:00
FanDuel3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-12 22:10
Betsson3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -9.12%E -7.18%K -33.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:14
NetBet (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.055%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -9.83%E -7.80%K -37.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 21:59
Bet Right3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.38%E +0.661%K +0.916%G +0.022%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:00
Codere (IT)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +2.38%E +0.661%K +0.916%G +0.022%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -8.40%E -6.56%K -30.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 22:00
GTbets3.59I 27.86%NM 26.88%EV +2.10%E +0.584%K +0.809%G +0.017%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.12%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-12 22:00
BetRivers3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV +0.959%E +0.270%K +0.376%G +0.004%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 22:00
Everygame3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV +0.959%E +0.270%K +0.376%G +0.004%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -8.40%E -6.56%K -30.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-12 22:00
Bovada3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-12 22:15
Marathon Bet3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 21:54
Betway3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 22:14
William Hill3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 22:00
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:10
BetUS3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -0.463%E -0.132%K -0.185%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 22:00
PlayUp3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -1.89%E -0.546%K -0.769%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 22:13
Betclic (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -1.89%E -0.546%K -0.769%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -10.55%E -8.44%K -42.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-12 22:03
Caesars3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -3.31%E -0.973%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.69%E -5.96%K -26.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 21:59
Unibet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 22:15
Neds3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 22:00
TAB3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -6.97%E -5.36%K -23.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 22:15
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 22:15
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 22:15
theScore Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-12 22:15
NordicBet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.54%E -4.20%K -17.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 22:15
PointsBet (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -10.42%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Fanatics3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -10.42%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -6.26%E -4.77%K -20.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-12 22:14
Hard Rock Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 22:15
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.82%E -3.63%K -14.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 22:15
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:15
Casumo3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:15
betPARX3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:15
ATG (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -13.26%E -4.35%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -1.25%E -0.903%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 22:15
Coolbet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-12 22:15
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
TABtouch3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Grosvenor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
888sport3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Bally Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Tipico (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -14.68%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -3.39%E -2.51%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 22:15
DraftKings2.99I 33.44%NM 31.89%EV -14.97%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.11%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%4.9%2026-03-12 22:15
LeoVegas2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -3.39%E -2.51%K -9.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -16.10%E -5.46%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -4.11%E -3.07%K -12.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-12 22:15
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -17.53%E -6.04%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -1.96%E -1.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-12 22:15
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -18.10%E -6.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-12 22:15
BoyleSports2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -18.10%E -6.28%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-12 22:15
Bet Victor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%7.1%2026-03-12 22:15
BetMGM2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%7.1%2026-03-12 22:15
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -1.96%E -1.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-12 22:15
Fliff2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -20.37%E -7.28%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -2.68%E -1.97%K -7.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-12 22:15
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -21.79%E -7.92%K -12.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%7.8%2026-03-12 22:15
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -21.79%E -7.92%K -12.45%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV +0.185%E +0.132%K +0.463%G +0.001%7.8%2026-03-12 22:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96%1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04%0.0%2026-03-12 22:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79%0.4%2026-03-12 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%0.7%2026-03-12 22:15
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78%1.8%2026-03-12 22:15
Novig3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%2.9%2026-03-12 22:15
Matchbook2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.27%3.2%2026-03-12 22:15