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Aryna Sabalenka v Himeno Sakatsume
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 95.03%1.05fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -153.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.83%94.82%95.00%98.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.02100.00%98.99%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Himeno Sakatsume (Visit)
Prediction 4.97%20.14fair odd
EV +178.04%
Edge +3.18%
Kelly +3.24%
Growth +5.76%
assuming max odds 56.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.75%5.18%5.00%9.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0020.5217.0056.0010.00%4.87%5.88%1.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 95.03%; Himeno Sakatsume (Visit): 4.97%. For Himeno Sakatsume (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.14. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 56.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +178.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 98.25%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 56.00I 1.79%NM 1.75%EV +178.04%E +3.18%K +3.24%G +5.76% | 1.8% | 2026-03-06 21:16 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +103.57%E +2.53%K +2.59%G +2.68% | 2.4% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.20%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 35.00I 2.86%NM 2.80%EV +73.78%E +2.11%K +2.17%G +1.60% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +68.81%E +2.02%K +2.09%G +1.43% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +68.81%E +2.02%K +2.09%G +1.43% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 21:16 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +43.99%E +1.52%K +1.57%G +0.691% | 2.5% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.52%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.48%EV +39.02%E +1.39%K +1.45%G +0.564% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 21:16 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 96.38%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 27.13I 3.69%NM 3.62%EV +34.70%E +1.28%K +1.33%G +0.461% | 1.7% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +29.09%E +1.12%K +1.16%G +0.339% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +29.09%E +1.12%K +1.16%G +0.339% | 2.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +4.27%E +0.203%K +0.213%G +0.009% | 2.8% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +4.27%E +0.203%K +0.213%G +0.009% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 21:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +4.27%E +0.203%K +0.213%G +0.009% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -5.66%E -0.298%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -5.66%E -0.298%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -5.66%E -0.298%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 21:07 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -5.66%E -0.298%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.00%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -5.66%E -0.298%K -0.315%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -10.63%E -0.591%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 21:12 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 21:12 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -15.59%E -0.917%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.88%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.12%EV -23.04%E -1.49%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.88%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.12%EV -23.04%E -1.49%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 21:13 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 21:13 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -25.52%E -1.70%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 21:11 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -35.45%E -2.73%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 21:06 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -35.45%E -2.73%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -35.45%E -2.73%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 21:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 92.86%EV -4.97%E -4.97%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -35.45%E -2.73%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 21:16 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -37.94%E -3.03%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 21:13 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.06%E -3.00%K -153.22%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -45.38%E -4.13%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 21:12 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -4.01%E -3.97%K -401.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -50.35%E -5.03%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-06 21:12 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.88% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.12% | 0.2% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.63% | 42.00I 2.38%NM 2.37% | 0.4% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.20% | 54.95I 1.82%NM 1.80% | 0.8% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.99% | 32.26I 3.10%NM 3.01% | 3.1% | 2026-03-06 21:15 |