Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kayla Day v Liudmila Samsonova

2026-09-16 19:00 UTC — WTA Guadalajara Open

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kayla Day (Local)

Predicción 29.90%3.34momio equitativo
EV -1.33%
Ventaja -0.402%
Kelly -0.577%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.60%29.99%29.91%34.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.133.203.3036.36%31.91%31.25%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante)

Predicción 70.10%1.43momio equitativo
EV -0.459%
Ventaja -0.324%
Kelly -1.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.95%70.01%70.09%71.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.341.341.4276.92%74.45%74.63%70.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kayla Day (Local): 29.90%; Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante): 70.10%. Para Liudmila Samsonova (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.43. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.42, con un valor esperado de -0.459%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.33%E -0.402%K -0.577%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-15 05:20
DraftKings🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -1.63%E -0.494%K -0.710%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 05:15
SportsBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 28.60%EV -2.22%E -0.680%K -0.980%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.40%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 05:15
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-15 07:50
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:31
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:31
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:31
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 07:30
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 05:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 05:44
1xBet🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.85%EV -3.72%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.15%EV -3.96%E -2.89%K -10.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 07:55
GTbets🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV -4.02%E -1.25%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 05:40
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-15 07:54
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-15 05:20
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 07:51
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 07:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 05:15
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 07:45
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 05:15
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 05:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.32%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 06:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -4.91%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-15 07:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 07:51
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:15
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:15
Betr (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.37%E -3.98%K -15.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 07:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 07:30
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:15
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:26
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 05:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.07%E -4.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 05:15
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.31%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 05:15
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -8.80%E -2.89%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-15 05:15
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 05:20
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.30%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.77%E -5.09%K -20.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-15 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.75%EV -11.79%E -4.00%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.25%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-15 05:16
ReBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.75%EV -11.79%E -4.00%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.25%EV -8.17%E -6.24%K -26.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-15 05:15
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -13.29%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.86%E -1.33%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 07:00
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -13.29%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -1.86%E -1.33%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-15 07:46
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -13.29%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.05%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-15 05:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -14.78%E -5.19%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.67%EV -8.87%E -6.82%K -29.57%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-15 05:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -16.28%E -5.81%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 07:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -16.28%E -5.81%K -9.04%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -4.67%E -3.43%K -12.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 07:50
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -17.77%E -6.46%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -0.459%E -0.324%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 07:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -17.77%E -6.46%K -10.16%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -0.459%E -0.324%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 07:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig3.23I 30.96%NM 29.01%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.99%6.7%2026-09-15 07:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 34.00%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.00%11.4%2026-09-15 07:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 34.00%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.00%11.4%2026-09-15 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 34.00%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.00%11.4%2026-09-15 07:25
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 31.25%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.75%11.9%2026-09-15 05:15
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 35.31%1.31I 76.34%NM 64.69%18.0%2026-09-15 07:25