La escuela de los momios

Jil Teichmann v Magdalena Frech

Inicio: 2026-05-27 16:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Jil Teichmann (Local)

Predicción 44.02%2.27momio equitativo
EV +10.93%
Ventaja +4.34%
Kelly +7.19%
Crecimiento +0.786%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.52

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.82%43.68%44.52%48.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.192.152.5252.36%45.58%46.51%39.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Magdalena Frech (Visitante)

Predicción 55.98%1.79momio equitativo
EV +2.44%
Ventaja +1.34%
Kelly +2.95%
Crecimiento +0.072%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.07%56.32%55.48%61.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.661.661.8364.52%60.11%60.24%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.52I 39.68%NM 38.83%EV +10.93%E +4.34%K +7.19%G +0.786%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.17%EV -10.43%E -6.52%K -17.39%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-27 15:30
LowVig.ag2.49I 40.16%NM 38.82%EV +9.61%E +3.86%K +6.45%G +0.620%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.18%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-27 15:30
BetOnline.ag2.49I 40.16%NM 38.82%EV +9.61%E +3.86%K +6.45%G +0.620%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.18%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-27 15:30
Codere (IT)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV +7.41%E +3.04%K +5.14%G +0.381%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -10.99%E -6.91%K -18.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-27 16:00
SportsBet2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV +6.97%E +2.87%K +4.87%G +0.339%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -12.67%E -8.12%K -22.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-27 15:54
Marathon Bet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV +6.53%E +2.70%K +4.60%G +0.300%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -12.67%E -8.12%K -22.63%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 15:58
NetBet (FR)2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV +6.53%E +2.70%K +4.60%G +0.300%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -13.23%E -8.54%K -24.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-27 16:00
BetAnything2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -9.87%E -6.13%K -16.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-27 15:59
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -10.99%E -6.91%K -18.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-27 15:29
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-27 15:50
1xBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-27 16:00
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.11%E -7.71%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.11%E -7.71%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 15:40
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.11%E -7.71%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 15:58
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -13.23%E -8.54%K -24.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 16:00
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +5.65%E +2.35%K +4.03%G +0.228%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -13.23%E -8.54%K -24.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-27 15:29
GTbets2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV +3.01%E +1.28%K +2.24%G +0.067%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-27 15:59
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV +2.57%E +1.10%K +1.93%G +0.049%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -10.43%E -6.52%K -17.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-27 15:30
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.24%E +0.541%K +0.958%G +0.012%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.31%E -5.75%K -15.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-27 16:05
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.956%E -0.425%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.63%E -4.63%K -11.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-27 16:10
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.956%E -0.425%K -0.765%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -10.43%E -6.52%K -17.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 16:10
DraftKings2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -1.40%E -0.623%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -8.75%E -5.37%K -13.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-27 16:10
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.16%E -1.44%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.63%E -4.63%K -11.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-27 16:10
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.27%E -2.50%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-27 16:10
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-27 16:10
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.63%E -4.63%K -11.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -0.914%E -0.517%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-27 16:08
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.27%E -2.50%K -6.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-27 16:10
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-27 16:10
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-27 16:10
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.51%E -3.90%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-27 16:10
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -9.87%E -6.13%K -16.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 16:10
MyBookie.ag2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +0.765%E +0.425%K +0.956%G +0.007%4.3%2026-05-27 16:09
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.59%E -1.49%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 16:10
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.76%E -4.76%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-27 16:09
Betsson2.01I 49.75%NM 46.11%EV -11.52%E -5.73%K -11.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.89%EV -3.71%E -2.16%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-27 16:10
NordicBet2.01I 49.75%NM 46.11%EV -11.52%E -5.73%K -11.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.89%EV -3.71%E -2.16%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-27 16:10
Hard Rock Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +0.765%E +0.425%K +0.956%G +0.007%5.6%2026-05-27 16:10
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.03%E -1.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.03%E -1.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.03%E -1.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-27 16:10
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-27 16:09
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.96%E -5.98%K -11.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-27 16:10
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -13.28%E -6.74%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -1.47%E -0.838%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-27 16:10
Virgin Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -13.28%E -6.74%K -13.69%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -1.47%E -0.838%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-27 16:10
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -13.72%E -7.00%K -14.29%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.14%EV -7.07%E -4.26%K -10.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-27 16:10
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -14.16%E -7.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +0.765%E +0.425%K +0.956%G +0.007%6.8%2026-05-27 16:07
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.16%E -7.26%K -14.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -2.03%E -1.16%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-27 16:10
Caesars1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.92%E -8.34%K -17.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +2.44%E +1.34%K +2.95%G +0.072%7.0%2026-05-27 16:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.28%0.9%2026-05-27 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%1.3%2026-05-27 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.21%1.6%2026-05-27 16:10
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%1.9%2026-05-27 16:10
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%2.3%2026-05-27 16:10
Novig2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%3.7%2026-05-27 16:10