Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 94.07%1.06fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -54.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.64%93.95%94.29%97.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.011.04100.00%98.49%99.01%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (Visit)
Prediction 5.93%16.86fair odd
EV +131.34%
Edge +3.37%
Kelly +3.46%
Growth +4.54%
assuming max odds 39.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.52%6.05%5.71%10.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0016.0915.0039.0011.11%6.22%6.67%2.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 94.07%; Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (Visit): 5.93%. For Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.86. 23 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 39.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +131.34%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.48%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 39.00I 2.56%NM 2.52%EV +131.34%E +3.37%K +3.46%G +4.54% | 1.6% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +101.68%E +2.99%K +3.08%G +3.13% | 2.9% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 2.8% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 2.8% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.93%E -5.93%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +24.57%E +1.17%K +1.23%G +0.302% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +18.64%E +0.932%K +0.981%G +0.183% | 3.0% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +12.70%E +0.669%K +0.706%G +0.090% | 4.3% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV +9.74%E +0.526%K +0.556%G +0.054% | 4.4% | 2026-05-26 10:18 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 3.6% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +6.77%E +0.376%K +0.398%G +0.027% | 4.6% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.54%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.46%EV +3.81%E +0.217%K +0.231%G +0.009% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 17.02I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +0.959%E +0.056%K +0.060%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +0.840%E +0.049%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.37%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 16.93I 5.91%NM 5.63%EV +0.425%E +0.025%K +0.027%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.04%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 15.93I 6.28%NM 5.96%EV -5.51%E -0.346%K -0.369%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-26 09:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -11.02%E -0.735%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 10:17 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV -12.21%E -0.825%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-26 09:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -13.99%E -0.965%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-26 10:18 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -15.47%E -1.09%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 09:58 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -16.96%E -1.21%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 10:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -16.96%E -1.21%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-26 09:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.98%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.02%EV -19.92%E -1.48%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 09:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.04%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.96%EV -19.92%E -1.48%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -22.89%E -1.76%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-26 10:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -22.89%E -1.76%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -22.89%E -1.76%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -22.89%E -1.76%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.47%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 12.52I 7.99%NM 7.53%EV -25.73%E -2.06%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 09:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -25.85%E -2.07%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 10:08 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -28.82%E -2.40%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 09:58 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -28.82%E -2.40%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-26 09:58 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.05%E -3.97%K -202.52%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -28.82%E -2.40%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.93%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -31.78%E -2.76%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -2.17%E -2.09%K -54.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -34.75%E -3.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 10:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -2.17%E -2.09%K -54.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -34.75%E -3.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-26 10:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -34.75%E -3.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-26 10:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -34.75%E -3.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -34.75%E -3.16%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-26 10:16 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -3.11%E -3.02%K -103.66%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -37.72%E -3.59%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -4.99%E -4.94%K -499.11%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -37.72%E -3.59%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-26 10:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -2.17%E -2.09%K -54.23%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -46.61%E -5.18%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-26 10:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.83% | 46.08I 2.17%NM 2.17% | 0.2% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.83% | 46.00I 2.17%NM 2.17% | 0.2% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.63% | 42.00I 2.38%NM 2.37% | 0.4% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49% | 0.5% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49% | 0.5% | 2026-05-26 10:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 96.43% | 27.03I 3.70%NM 3.57% | 3.7% | 2026-05-26 10:19 |