Language:English
Maria Timofeeva v Katerina Siniakova
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Timofeeva (Local)
Prediction 36.02%2.78fair odd
EV +6.27%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +3.21%
Growth +0.201%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%35.94%35.84%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.732.662.9541.67%36.62%37.59%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Katerina Siniakova (Visit)
Prediction 63.98%1.56fair odd
EV -0.195%
Edge -0.125%
Kelly -0.349%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.76%64.06%64.16%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.461.5672.46%68.64%68.73%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 36.02%; Katerina Siniakova (Visit): 63.98%. For Maria Timofeeva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.27%E +2.12%K +3.21%G +0.201% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.43%E -7.45%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 09:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV +2.66%E +0.935%K +1.44%G +0.038% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -11.71%E -8.49%K -30.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-14 09:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%EV +1.22%E +0.435%K +0.676%G +0.008% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%EV -7.87%E -5.47%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-13 17:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.73%EV +0.863%E +0.308%K +0.480%G +0.004% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.27%EV -4.67%E -3.14%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 13:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -0.938%E -0.341%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -6.59%E -4.52%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 12:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.93%EV -2.38%E -0.878%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.07%EV -2.75%E -1.81%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-13 04:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -3.82%E -1.43%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -5.95%E -4.05%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 20:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 05:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -4.54%E -1.71%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.59%E -4.52%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-13 20:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.92%EV -4.90%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.08%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 04:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 35.45%EV -4.90%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.55%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 20:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.62%E -2.15%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.87%E -5.47%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-13 08:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -1.47%E -0.958%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-12 17:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.11%E -1.38%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-12 19:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 04:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 04:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 04:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.34%E -2.44%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.23%E -4.99%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-13 04:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -7.42%E -2.89%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -0.195%E -0.125%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-13 13:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -7.42%E -2.89%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -0.195%E -0.125%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-13 13:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.14%E -3.19%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.03%E -2.69%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-12 14:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.61%EV -8.14%E -3.19%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.39%EV -9.79%E -6.94%K -23.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-13 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.94%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.75%E -1.81%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-13 20:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.94%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-12 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -9.94%E -3.98%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.31%E -3.59%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-12 14:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -2.75%E -1.81%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-12 14:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -11.74%E -4.79%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -2.75%E -1.81%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-12 14:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -13.55%E -5.64%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -0.835%E -0.539%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-12 20:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.58% | 3.0% | 2026-08-14 04:19 |