Language:English
Paula Badosa v Daria Kasatkina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Paula Badosa (Local)
Prediction 65.75%1.52fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.922%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.14%65.73%65.81%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.441.441.5074.07%69.40%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daria Kasatkina (Visit)
Prediction 34.25%2.92fair odd
EV +2.76%
Edge +0.922%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%34.27%34.19%36.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.732.733.0040.82%36.58%36.70%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paula Badosa (Local): 65.75%; Daria Kasatkina (Visit): 34.25%. For Daria Kasatkina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.76%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.76%E +0.922%K +1.38%G +0.038% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 05:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.76%E +0.922%K +1.38%G +0.038% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 11:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.76%E +0.922%K +1.38%G +0.038% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 05:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.357%K +0.540%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.357%K +0.540%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.05%E +0.357%K +0.540%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -1.35%E -0.467%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-01 02:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.98%E -4.19%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -1.35%E -0.467%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 02:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.35%E -0.467%K -0.716%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -9.93%E -7.25%K -26.84%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -2.37%E -0.833%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-30 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -3.06%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -3.06%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-01 02:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.28%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.72%EV -3.06%E -1.08%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.19%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-30 23:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.41%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.95%EV -1.38%E -0.922%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.05%EV -4.77%E -1.72%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-01 03:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.27%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.73%EV -5.11%E -1.85%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 04:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -5.46%E -1.98%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 04:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 04:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-28 19:22 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-28 19:18 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.80%E -2.11%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 18:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -11.24%E -8.33%K -32.13%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -7.51%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV -7.85%E -2.92%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-01 05:23 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 18:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -9.22%E -3.48%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 18:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.25%E -3.91%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.94%E -4.21%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 00:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -12.65%E -4.96%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -12.65%E -4.96%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-01 02:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -5.98%E -4.19%K -13.92%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -16.08%E -6.56%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 66.22% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78% | 0.0% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-10-01 05:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94% | 1.6% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.51% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.49% | 2.3% | 2026-10-01 05:25 |