L’École des cotes

Sara Bejlek v Belinda Bencic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-02 15:25 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sara Bejlek (Local)

Prévision 44.42%2.25cote équitable
EV +28.80%
Avantage +9.93%
Kelly +15.16%
Croissance +4.37%

avec la cote maximale 2.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.03%43.82%44.39%51.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.832.262.172.9054.64%44.27%46.08%34.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Belinda Bencic (Visiteur)

Prévision 55.58%1.80cote équitable
EV +6.17%
Avantage +3.23%
Kelly +6.78%
Croissance +0.418%

avec la cote maximale 1.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
48.93%56.18%55.61%66.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.371.621.651.9172.99%61.61%60.61%52.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
BetUS2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +28.80%E +9.93%K +15.16%G +4.37%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -20.51%E -14.35%K -47.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-02 15:10
SportsBet2.76I 36.23%NM 33.81%EV +22.59%E +8.18%K +12.83%G +2.90%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.19%EV -21.63%E -15.34%K -52.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:07
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -17.18%E -11.53%K -35.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-02 15:08
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -17.18%E -11.53%K -35.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-02 15:09
Bet Right2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -18.85%E -12.91%K -40.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:04
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +19.92%E +7.38%K +11.72%G +2.33%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -19.40%E -13.38%K -43.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 15:03
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +19.92%E +7.38%K +11.72%G +2.33%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -23.85%E -17.41%K -64.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 15:07
GTbets2.68I 37.31%NM 34.79%EV +19.03%E +7.10%K +11.33%G +2.16%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -20.51%E -14.35%K -47.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:06
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +16.37%E +6.25%K +10.10%G +1.65%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -16.62%E -11.08%K -33.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-02 15:06
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -17.73%E -11.98%K -36.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 15:07
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -19.96%E -13.86%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:03
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -19.96%E -13.86%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:03
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +6.60%E +2.75%K +4.71%G +0.311%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-02 15:13
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +4.38%E +1.86%K +3.24%G +0.142%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -11.06%E -6.92%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 15:15
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +4.38%E +1.86%K +3.24%G +0.142%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -11.06%E -6.92%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 15:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -0.065%E -0.029%K -0.052%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 15:14
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.06%E -3.59%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:15
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.17%E -1.46%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-02 15:14
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.17%E -1.46%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-02 15:14
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:15
Bally Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 15:14
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -4.95%E -2.31%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -9.40%E -5.77%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 15:14
DraftKings2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -5.40%E -2.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 15:14
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.84%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -5.84%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-02 15:15
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:14
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.73%E -4.66%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:15
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 15:14
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 15:15
PointsBet (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-02 15:15
PMU (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.99%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-02 15:14
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-02 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-02 15:15
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 15:15
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 15:15
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-02 15:13
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.39%E -6.87%K -14.09%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.83%E +1.53%K +3.33%G +0.094%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV +0.052%E +0.029%K +0.065%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:14
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -18.72%E -10.23%K -22.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +6.17%E +3.23%K +6.78%G +0.418%7.0%2026-04-02 15:14
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%0.7%2026-04-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-04-02 15:15
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-04-02 15:15
ProphetX2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.0%2026-04-02 15:15
Novig2.19I 45.66%NM 42.67%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.33%7.0%2026-04-02 15:15