La escuela de los momios

Sara Bejlek v Belinda Bencic

Inicio: 2026-04-02 15:25 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sara Bejlek (Local)

Predicción 44.42%2.25momio equitativo
EV +28.80%
Ventaja +9.93%
Kelly +15.16%
Crecimiento +4.37%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.03%43.82%44.39%51.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.832.262.172.9054.64%44.27%46.08%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Belinda Bencic (Visitante)

Predicción 55.58%1.80momio equitativo
EV +6.17%
Ventaja +3.23%
Kelly +6.78%
Crecimiento +0.418%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.93%56.18%55.61%66.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.371.621.651.9172.99%61.61%60.61%52.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
BetUS2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +28.80%E +9.93%K +15.16%G +4.37%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -20.51%E -14.35%K -47.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-02 15:10
SportsBet2.76I 36.23%NM 33.81%EV +22.59%E +8.18%K +12.83%G +2.90%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.19%EV -21.63%E -15.34%K -52.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:07
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -17.18%E -11.53%K -35.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-02 15:08
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -17.18%E -11.53%K -35.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-02 15:09
Bet Right2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV +20.81%E +7.65%K +12.10%G +2.52%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -18.85%E -12.91%K -40.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:04
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +19.92%E +7.38%K +11.72%G +2.33%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -19.40%E -13.38%K -43.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 15:03
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +19.92%E +7.38%K +11.72%G +2.33%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -23.85%E -17.41%K -64.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 15:07
GTbets2.68I 37.31%NM 34.79%EV +19.03%E +7.10%K +11.33%G +2.16%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.21%EV -20.51%E -14.35%K -47.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:06
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV +16.37%E +6.25%K +10.10%G +1.65%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -16.62%E -11.08%K -33.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-02 15:06
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -17.73%E -11.98%K -36.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 15:07
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -19.96%E -13.86%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:03
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +15.48%E +5.95%K +9.68%G +1.50%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -19.96%E -13.86%K -45.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:03
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +6.60%E +2.75%K +4.71%G +0.311%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-02 15:13
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +4.38%E +1.86%K +3.24%G +0.142%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -11.06%E -6.92%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 15:15
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +4.38%E +1.86%K +3.24%G +0.142%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -11.06%E -6.92%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 15:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -0.065%E -0.029%K -0.052%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 15:14
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.06%E -3.59%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Casumo2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Unibet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
betPARX2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 15:14
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 15:15
BetRivers2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.17%E -1.46%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-02 15:14
TABtouch2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -3.17%E -1.46%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-02 15:14
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:15
Bally Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-02 15:14
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.17%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 15:14
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -4.95%E -2.31%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -9.40%E -5.77%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 15:14
DraftKings2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -5.40%E -2.53%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 15:14
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.84%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.32%EV -5.84%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.68%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-02 15:15
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:14
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 15:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.73%E -4.66%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:15
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 15:14
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -6.73%E -3.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 15:15
PointsBet (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-02 15:15
PMU (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.99%EV -12.73%E -8.11%K -22.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-02 15:14
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-02 15:14
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-02 15:15
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 15:15
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-02 15:15
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.17%E -5.58%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-02 15:13
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.39%E -6.87%K -14.09%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.83%E +1.53%K +3.33%G +0.094%5.3%2026-04-02 15:15
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV +0.052%E +0.029%K +0.065%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 15:14
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -18.72%E -10.23%K -22.55%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +6.17%E +3.23%K +6.78%G +0.418%7.0%2026-04-02 15:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%0.6%2026-04-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%0.7%2026-04-02 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-04-02 15:15
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%1.5%2026-04-02 15:15
ProphetX2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.0%2026-04-02 15:15
Novig2.19I 45.66%NM 42.67%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.33%7.0%2026-04-02 15:15