Language:English
Maria Sakkari v Paula Badosa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Sakkari (Local)
Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%48.27%48.30%50.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.951.952.0153.76%51.27%51.28%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Paula Badosa (Visit)
Prediction 51.77%1.93fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.583%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.74%51.73%51.70%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.831.831.9158.14%54.67%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Sakkari (Local): 48.23%; Paula Badosa (Visit): 51.77%. For Paula Badosa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -3.06%E -1.52%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-01 18:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 18:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.43%E -6.03%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.03%E -2.02%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-01 18:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-01 18:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-01 18:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -6.29%E -3.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -6.29%E -3.48%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-01 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -4.99%E -2.53%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-01 18:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -5.48%E -2.79%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.74%E -2.57%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-01 18:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.18%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 18:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 18:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-01 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -6.44%E -3.32%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -7.40%E -3.86%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.80%EV -7.40%E -3.86%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.20%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-01 18:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-01 18:27 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -8.85%E -4.68%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -1.11%E -0.583%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-01 18:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -9.33%E -4.96%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 18:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -9.33%E -4.96%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.63%EV -9.33%E -4.96%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.37%EV -7.84%E -4.41%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.04%EV -10.30%E -5.54%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.96%EV -10.95%E -6.37%K -15.21%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-01 18:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.05I 48.78%NM 48.49% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51% | 0.6% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.85% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.15% | 1.8% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15% | 2.4% | 2026-04-01 18:55 |