L’École des cotes

Nuno Borges v Tristan Boyer

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-29 13:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Nuno Borges (Local)

Prévision 72.79%1.37cote équitable
EV -1.73%
Avantage -1.28%
Kelly -4.95%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
70.48%72.70%72.78%74.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.251.311.311.3580.00%76.05%76.34%74.07%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Tristan Boyer (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.21%3.68cote équitable
EV +2.04%
Avantage +0.543%
Kelly +0.740%
Croissance +0.015%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.70%27.30%27.22%29.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.413.403.7531.25%29.32%29.41%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Winamax (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +2.04%E +0.543%K +0.740%G +0.015%3.6%2026-06-29 12:50
Betclic (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.70%EV +1.49%E +0.400%K +0.547%G +0.008%4.3%2026-06-29 12:49
SportsBet1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -0.957%E -0.263%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-29 12:50
Pinnacle1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-29 12:51
Unibet (UK)1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-29 12:50
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 12:51
Bovada1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 12:50
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 12:50
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-29 12:51
TAB1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.83%E -5.33%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
Tipico (DE)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.83%E -5.33%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:51
Winamax (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.83%E -5.33%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -2.05%E -0.568%K -0.787%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
1xBet1.35I 74.07%NM 72.51%EV -1.73%E -1.28%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.49%EV -3.13%E -0.880%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-29 12:50
DraftKings1.29I 77.52%NM 73.40%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.60%EV -3.13%E -0.880%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 12:50
Codere (IT)1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -3.41%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-29 12:51
ReBet1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -3.41%E -0.959%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-29 12:50
Coolbet1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-29 12:50
Unibet (FR)1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-29 12:51
BetAnything1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-29 12:50
Betway1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:50
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:50
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.77%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:50
MyBookie.ag1.31I 76.34%NM 72.65%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.35%EV -5.31%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 12:48
Fanatics1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 12:50
PointsBet (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
theScore Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
NetBet (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.83%E -5.33%K -24.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -6.13%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-29 12:50
NordicBet1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -6.67%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 12:50
Betsson1.29I 77.52%NM 72.67%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.33%EV -6.67%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-29 12:50
BetMGM1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-29 12:50
Everygame1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 12:50
Coral1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 12:50
Dabble (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 12:50
Caesars1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.10%E -4.73%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-29 12:50
Betr (AU)1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -9.01%E -7.21%K -36.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -7.49%E -2.20%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-06-29 12:50
Marathon Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -8.58%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:51
Ladbrokes (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 12:50
Neds1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.92%E -2.97%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 12:50
BetUS1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.64%E -3.55%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.85%E -2.64%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-29 12:50
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.21%E -3.09%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:51
William Hill1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.21%E -3.09%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:50
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.21%E -3.09%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:51
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.21%E -3.09%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 12:50
Unibet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:51
Unibet (NL)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
Casumo1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
TABtouch1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
LeoVegas1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:51
Grosvenor1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
BetRivers1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:51
Unibet (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:51
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:51
Bally Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:49
betPARX1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
ATG (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
Svenska Spel1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 12:50
betfred_uk1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:51
Hard Rock Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.57%E -3.56%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 12:50
LiveScore Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -12.93%E -4.04%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
Virgin Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -2.46%E -1.84%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -12.93%E -4.04%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 12:50
PMU (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.19%E -2.40%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -12.93%E -4.04%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 12:50
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.37%E -4.13%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.93%E -4.04%K -5.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-29 12:48
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-06-29 12:50
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-06-29 12:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-06-29 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-06-29 12:51
ProphetX1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27%1.9%2026-06-29 12:51
Smarkets1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%2.8%2026-06-29 12:51
Novig1.32I 75.76%NM 73.39%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.61%3.2%2026-06-29 12:50