A Escola das Odds

Frances Tiafoe v Alexander Bublik

Início: 2026-07-04 17:22 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Frances Tiafoe (Local)

Previsão 54.53%1.83odd justa
EV +2.52%
Vantagem +1.34%
Kelly +2.86%
Crescimento +0.072%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.88

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.53%55.05%54.52%60.41%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.481.711.711.8867.57%58.47%58.48%53.19%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Alexander Bublik (Visitante)

Previsão 45.47%2.20odd justa
EV +8.21%
Vantagem +3.45%
Kelly +5.95%
Crescimento +0.489%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.38

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.59%44.95%45.48%49.47%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.902.102.102.3852.63%47.55%47.62%42.02%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -14.38%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +8.21%E +3.45%K +5.95%G +0.489%5.7%2026-07-04 17:20
DraftKings1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -14.93%E -9.57%K -26.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV +8.21%E +3.45%K +5.95%G +0.489%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.66%E -7.20%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.58%E +1.99%K +3.52%G +0.161%5.2%2026-07-04 17:20
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -12.75%E -7.97%K -21.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +4.58%E +1.99%K +3.52%G +0.161%6.0%2026-07-04 17:20
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -15.48%E -9.98%K -28.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +4.58%E +1.99%K +3.52%G +0.161%8.0%2026-07-04 17:20
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -8.93%E -5.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%4.3%2026-07-04 17:20
PointsBet (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -12.75%E -7.97%K -21.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%6.9%2026-07-04 17:20
NordicBet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -14.38%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%8.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -14.38%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%8.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -14.38%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%8.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -18.20%E -12.13%K -36.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%11.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Winamax (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.32%EV -19.29%E -13.04%K -40.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV +2.30%E +1.02%K +1.84%G +0.042%12.0%2026-07-04 17:20
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.93%E -5.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 17:20
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.02%E -6.07%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Unibet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.02%E -6.07%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
betPARX1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.02%E -6.07%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.02%E -6.07%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -12.20%E -7.58%K -20.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -12.20%E -7.58%K -20.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 17:20
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -12.20%E -7.58%K -20.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Fliff1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -14.93%E -9.57%K -26.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV +0.030%E +0.013%K +0.025%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Unibet (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -9.48%E -5.71%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -0.880%E -0.404%K -0.746%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Svenska Spel1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -9.48%E -5.71%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -0.880%E -0.404%K -0.746%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 57.22%EV -11.11%E -6.82%K -17.64%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.78%EV -0.880%E -0.404%K -0.746%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 17:20
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -11.66%E -7.20%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.74%EV -1.33%E -0.615%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 17:20
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -11.66%E -7.20%K -18.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.74%EV -1.33%E -0.615%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 17:20
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.84%EV -10.57%E -6.44%K -16.51%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.16%EV -1.79%E -0.828%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 17:20
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.84%E -4.64%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 17:19
PMU (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -12.75%E -7.97%K -21.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 17:20
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -5.11%E -2.94%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.61%E -1.70%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 17:10
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-04 17:20
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.75%E -3.95%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-04 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -12.20%E -7.58%K -20.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-04 17:20
Unibet (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.02%E -2.29%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.43%E -2.61%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 17:19
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.75%E -3.95%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 17:20
Pinnacle1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%EV +1.97%E +1.06%K +2.27%G +0.045%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%EV -7.25%E -3.55%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-04 17:10
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -7.25%E -3.55%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 17:19
FanDuel1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -2.39%E -1.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -7.25%E -3.55%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 17:20
Unibet (NL)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.02%E -2.29%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -7.25%E -3.55%K -6.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-04 17:20
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV +1.97%E +1.06%K +2.27%G +0.045%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-04 17:00
Codere (IT)1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV +0.339%E +0.184%K +0.403%G +0.001%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 17:00
ReBet1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV +0.339%E +0.184%K +0.403%G +0.001%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-04 17:01
Virgin Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -5.66%E -3.27%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -8.15%E -4.04%K -7.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-04 17:20
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.206%E -0.113%K -0.249%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-04 16:49
MyBookie.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -0.752%E -0.413%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-04 17:05
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 16:55
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 16:50
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.06%E -4.53%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%EV +1.43%E +0.769%K +1.66%G +0.024%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%EV -9.52%E -4.78%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 17:00
Betsson1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -2.39%E -1.33%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -9.97%E -5.04%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 17:00
Betr (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -1.30%E -0.717%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -10.43%E -5.29%K -10.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-04 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -10.43%E -5.29%K -10.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-04 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -0.206%E -0.113%K -0.249%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -10.88%E -5.55%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:50
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -0.206%E -0.113%K -0.249%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -10.88%E -5.55%K -11.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 16:50
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +0.884%E +0.478%K +1.04%G +0.009%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -11.34%E -5.81%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 17:15
Dabble (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -0.752%E -0.413%K -0.917%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -11.34%E -5.81%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 17:05
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -11.34%E -5.81%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 17:19
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV +2.52%E +1.34%K +2.86%G +0.072%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -12.70%E -6.62%K -13.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-04 16:50
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -0.206%E -0.113%K -0.249%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 16:50
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -0.206%E -0.113%K -0.249%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-04 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-04 16:50
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -1.84%E -1.02%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -13.16%E -6.89%K -14.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-04 16:50
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -4.57%E -2.61%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -13.61%E -7.16%K -15.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-04 17:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-07-04 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%0.4%2026-07-04 17:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%0.8%2026-07-04 17:20
Matchbook1.59I 62.89%NM 60.93%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%3.2%2026-07-04 17:20
ProphetX1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%4.0%2026-07-04 17:20
Novig1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%5.0%2026-07-04 17:20
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-07-04 17:20